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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
The writer is a professor at Georgetown University and a senior advisor at the Asia Group. He was on the staff of the US National Security Council from 2009-2015
If Donald Trump's China policy is determined by Uncertainty and contradictionXi Jinping's strategy is clear and determined. The Chinese president's approach to dealing with the US president-elect is no secret. Beijing has been quite clear since the election about its views and potential responses.
Not only does Xi plan to retaliate, he plans to capitalize on Trump's moves. During Trump's first term, Beijing was quick to respond. She is determined not to repeat this. Xi has started his preparations well and has indicated this.
Most Chinese analysts were not surprised by Trump's election, as they linked his return to a global wave of populism and nationalism. Beijing believes it now understands Trump's skill at games and can manipulate his administration. China's confidence is based on the conclusion that China in 2025 is different from 2017, whether accurate or inaccurate, and so is the United States and the world.
Many Chinese claim that Xi is stronger politically, and that the economy is more self-reliant and more resilient, even in light of recent challenges. Chinese analysts believe that the American economy is more fragile, and that American politics is deeply divided. Geopolitically, Beijing sees US influence declining across the Global South and Asia – and that support for China's vision is rising.
Xi has already indicated that he will treat his relations with Trump as purely business, albeit in the manner of Don Corleone. He will not embrace Trump personally, and will retaliate early and forcefully in order to generate influence. In fact, Beijing declined Trump's invitation to President Xi to attend the inauguration.
But Beijing is also signaling that it wants dialogue and is open to reaching an agreement to avoid new tariffs. However, the Chinese, who prefer to use back channels, are struggling to find the right channel to understand what Trump “really” wants. Beijing's basic assumption is that Washington and its allies will remain hostile to China for the foreseeable future. Xi is therefore open to negotiations because he wants some breathing room on the economic front, so that China can marshal its forces for a long-term competition.
Beijing remains concerned that the Trump team will focus on deeper economic decoupling, regime change in China and support for Taiwan independence, all as a means of containing and destabilizing China. Hence the four “red lines” set by Xi Jinping. In a November meeting with President Joe Biden In Peru, in a clear message to the next administration.
Beijing's planned responses to Trump fall into three baskets: retaliation, accommodation, and diversification. Reflecting US policies, Beijing in recent years has created a range of export controls, investment restrictions and regulatory investigations capable of harming US companies. Beijing is unable to match tariffs, so it will seek to impose costs in ways that cause maximum pain. For China, failure to retaliate would signal weakness at home and would only embolden Trump.
This has already started. In late 2024, Beijing blocked the export of critical metals used in chipmaking to the United States, squeezed the supply chain for US-made drones, threatened to blacklist a high-profile US apparel company and launched an antitrust investigation into Nvidia. By taking such actions, Beijing is previewing its capabilities and creating future bargaining chips.
China's second strategy is adaptation. Starting in the fall of 2023, Beijing begins aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus to help businesses and consumers now. This policy shift is generating some positive, albeit mixed, impacts. It is certainly much needed, but its scope and nature were also developed with a potential trade war in mind.
Beijing's third strategy includes expanding its economic relations. It is discussing unilaterally reducing tariffs on imports from non-US partners. On his trip to Peru, Xi Jinping opened a deep-water port that will reshape China's trade with Latin America, a major non-American source of food, energy and minerals. In late 2024, Xi also participated for the first time in meetings with the heads of 10 major international economic organizations. His message was clear: China will be the leading force for global economic stability, prosperity and openness, and oppose all forms of protectionism.
A lot can go wrong. Beijing's confidence is matched by Trump's team. Both sides believe they have the upper hand and can impose more costs and endure more pain. The stage is set for a complex and destabilizing dynamic that will lead, at best, to a ceasefire. And this is only regarding economic issues, not regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, technological competition, or the modernization of nuclear power. The Cold War is beginning to look strange in comparison.
