Investing.com – Wolff Research has identified ten critical policy and political questions that will shape the United States in 2025, as the political landscape reorients under a new Republican administration.
These questions, compiled into a detailed note, explore the uncertainty and complexities surrounding policy management under the Trump administration.
Each question represents considerations related to governance, market impact, and broader economic impacts.
Confirming Trump's nominees represents the first major hurdle. While most are expected to be confirmed, some controversial figures face potential resistance.
Candidates like RFK Jr. at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) carry specific implications for the market, especially regarding health care sector regulations.
Mass deportation policies are expected to redefine migration dynamics, but their scope and effectiveness remain uncertain.
Analysts expect a significant decline in net migration, but note that operational and legal constraints may temper the administration's ambitions.
Trump's tariff agenda is another point of contention. While threats to impose comprehensive tariffs may serve as negotiating tools, the administration is more likely to implement selective tariffs, especially targeting China.
These moves are expected to have market repercussions, especially in sectors exposed to tariffs.
Tax policy under the new administration will also be a focal point. Republicans aim to extend Trump-era tax cuts, but narrow margins in Congress may necessitate concessions, including spending cuts in areas such as health care and energy subsidies.
Rolling back clean energy tax credits and Medicaid reforms are among the potential cost-saving measures being discussed.
Health care is a prominent topic, with RFK Jr.'s appointment raising questions about vaccine policies, drug pricing and public health reform.
Initial signs point to a less disruptive approach than feared, with attention likely focusing on institutional reforms rather than confrontational regulatory changes.
The administration's deregulatory ambitions, embodied by the Ministry of Government Efficiency, face legal and procedural obstacles.
While some industries, such as traditional energy and financial services, may benefit from regulatory rollback, widespread deregulation may be slower than expected due to jurisdictional challenges.
In antitrust policy, Trump's choices for regulatory roles indicate a pro-business stance. However, populist influence, especially in sectors such as Big Tech, cannot be completely ruled out, reflecting internal divisions within the GOP agenda.
The memorandum emphasizes financial sustainability as a long-term challenge. Despite promises of economic growth and deficit reduction, analysts at Wolff Research expect the deficit to remain high, with federal spending increasingly constrained by debt servicing costs.
Each of these issues points to the uncertainties and challenges ahead. Wolfe Research stresses the need for vigilance and strategic planning as these questions evolve, noting that final results may not appear until later in the year.
