Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future looks uncertain after the sudden resignation of the most senior member of his cabinet, a once close ally.
Chrystia Freeland, a former deputy prime minister and finance minister, resigned from her posts on Monday with an open letter to Trudeau, outlining the differences she had with him over spending and “the best path forward for Canada.”
She said that these differences emerged through the threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods by the next US President, Donald Trump, tariffs that economists say could deal Canada a devastating economic blow.
Now questions are being asked on Parliament Hill, including by some members of his own Liberal Party, about whether he is capable of leading at this critical juncture.
He's faced with some choices about how to move forward.
And responding to calls for him to resign
Trudeau has been leader of the Liberal Party of Canada since 2013, and Prime Minister of Canada for just over nine years, since 2015.
Under the party's constitution, the leader can resign at any time. If effective immediately, an interim leader is appointed until party members can meet and vote on a new permanent leader.
Trudeau could also choose to remain in office until that new leader is elected.
Once a new leader is appointed, Trudeau will have to relinquish his powers as prime minister and hand them over to his successor.
Wait and weather the storm
Trudeau is not indicating that he will resign voluntarily any time soon.
At an emergency meeting with his caucus after Freeland's departure, Trudeau told fellow Liberal MPs — including some who have directly called for him to step down — that he would take time to reflect, according to multiple reports.
In a speech to Liberal supporters on Tuesday, he acknowledged that politics comes with “significant challenges” but said: “In difficult times, it is not time to stop. It is time to be ambitious and bold.”
Trudeau has been under pressure since the summer, due to his declining approval ratings and a series of special election losses in previously safe Liberal seats, indicating major problems for his party.
In October, he faced a small party rebellion, with 24 MPs signing a letter demanding his resignation.
Opinion polls indicate that if Canadian federal elections were held today, the official opposition Conservative Party would achieve a decisive victory.
Trudeau has persevered despite these problems and has repeatedly pledged to run again as Liberal leader in the next election.
Only 13 of the 153 Liberal MPs so far have publicly called for him to leave, and nearly half of them are not seeking re-election themselves, according to tracking by CBC News.
However, under the party's constitution, the position of leader can only be formally put to a vote by members after an election is lost.
A vote of no confidence triggers an election
The Conservatives, who lead in opinion polls by a large margin, have been trying for months to hold an election by introducing a series of no-confidence votes in the House of Commons.
If a government loses a motion of confidence or a vote in the House of Representatives, it is expected to resign or seek to dissolve Parliament, triggering a federal election.
The government needs the support of a majority of the 338 members of Parliament in a vote of no confidence. The Liberals are 17 seats shy of that.
The Conservative effort failed after the NDP or Bloc Québécois backed the Liberals in exchange for support to advance their policy priorities.
With Parliament adjourned for recess on Tuesday, Trudeau will not face the threat of another confidence motion until at least late January.
On Monday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh called for the first time on Trudeau to resign, making the Liberals' grip on power appear increasingly fragile.
The leader of the NDP House of Representatives told CBC that its members will vote in favor of a motion of no confidence if the prime minister remains leader in the new year.
Parliament postponed to avoid a vote of no confidence
One way Trudeau could avoid a vote is by proroguing Parliament — essentially a suspension that would stop all proceedings, including debates and votes, without dissolving Parliament.
While it is a routine part of parliamentary procedure, it is sometimes used by governments to buy time during political crises.
Parliament was most recently prorogued by Trudeau in August 2020, when his government was facing an ethics scandal over its handling of a contract with a charity.
It was also used to avoid a vote of no confidence by Trudeau's predecessor, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who suspended Parliament in December 2008 when federal opposition parties sought to form a coalition government.
Parliament resumed in January 2009. By then the coalition had collapsed, allowing Harper to remain in power.
Whatever Trudeau decides to do, an election in the coming months is inevitable.
Canada should hold its next election in or before October, and in the end, voters may be the ones who ultimately decide his future.
