Why was a Cambodian opposition politician killed in Bangkok?

It had all the hallmarks of a cold-blooded professional assassination.

Next to a well-known temple in Bangkok's historic Royal District, a man is seen in a security camera video stopping his motorcycle, taking off his helmet, so that his face is clearly visible, and walking calmly down the road.

A few minutes later, the sound of gunshots was heard. Another man falls to the ground.

The killer quickly returns to his motorcycle, appearing to throw something away as he does so, and then leaves.

The victim was Lim Kimya, a 73-year-old former parliamentarian from Cambodia's main opposition party. CNRP, which was banned in 2017. He was shot twice in the chest, according to Thai police. He had just arrived in Bangkok with his wife on a bus from Cambodia.

A policeman tried to revive him, but he died at the scene.

Monophythia Kim, the daughter of Cambodian National Rescue Party leader Kem Sokha, told the BBC: “He was brave and had an independent mind.”

“No one but the Cambodian state wanted to kill him.”

Lim Kimya held dual Cambodian and French citizenship, but he chose to remain in Cambodia even after his party was banned. The Cambodia National Rescue Party was a merger of two former opposition parties, and in 2013 came close to defeating the party of Hun Sen, the self-proclaimed “strongman” who had ruled Cambodia for nearly 40 years. Before handing it over to his son, Hun Manet, in 2023.

After his close call in the 2013 elections, Hun Sen accused the Cambodian National Rescue Party of treason, shutting it down and subjecting its members to legal and other forms of harassment. In 2023, Kem Sokha, who had already spent six years under house arrest, was sentenced to 27 years in prison.

High-level political assassinations, although not unknown, are relatively rare in Cambodia; In 2016, Kim Ly, a popular critic of Hun Sen, was shot dead in Phnom Penh, and in 2012 he was an environmental activist Chut Wutty was also killed.

Through security camera video, Thai police have already identified Lim Kimya's killer as a former Thai Navy officer, who now works as a motorcycle taxi driver. Finding it shouldn't be difficult.

But whether the murder was fully investigated is another matter.

In recent years, dozens of activists fleeing repression in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand have been returned to their countries after seeking safe haven, or, in some cases, have been killed or disappeared. Human rights groups believe there is an unwritten agreement between the four neighboring countries to allow their respective security forces to pursue dissidents across the border.

Last November, Thailand returned six Cambodian dissidents, along with a young child, to Cambodia, where they were immediately imprisoned. All of them have been recognized by the United Nations as refugees. Earlier in the year, Thailand also sent a Vietnamese Montagnard activist to Vietnam.

In the past, Thai anti-monarchy activists have been kidnapped and disappeared in Laos, widely assumed by Thai security forces operating outside its borders. In 2020, a young Thai activist fled to Cambodia, Wanchalearm Satsaksit was kidnapped and disappearedagain assumed by Thai customers.

Cambodian authorities did little to investigate, and announced last year that they had closed the case. The same could now happen in Lim Kimya's case.

“Thailand has presided over a de facto swap arrangement,” says Phil Robertson, Thailand director of Human Rights and Labor Advocates Asia.

“Dissidents and refugees are being bartered for political and economic favors with neighboring countries. The growing transnational repression in the Mekong sub-region must be stopped in its tracks.”

When Hun Manet, who was educated in the United States and the United Kingdom, succeeded his father as Cambodia's prime minister, there was some speculation about whether he would rule with a lighter hand. But opposition figures remain subject to prosecution and imprisonment, and what little space remaining for political opposition has been almost completely closed.

Since his semi-retirement, Hun Sen's personality continues to loom over his son's administration; He is now calling for a new law that would classify anyone who tries to replace him as a terrorist.

Thailand, which lobbied hard for and won a seat on the UN Human Rights Council this year, will now be under pressure to show it can bring to justice those behind such a brazen assassination on the streets of its capital.