Why is India reaching out to the Taliban now?

India's recent diplomatic outreach to the Afghan Taliban government signals a marked shift in how it views the geopolitical reality in the region.

This comes more than three years after India suffered a major strategic and diplomatic blow when… Kabul fell into the hands of the Taliban.

Two decades of investment in Afghanistan's democracy – through military training, scholarships, and landmark projects such as building a new parliament – were quickly undone. The collapse also paved the way for greater influence from regional rivals, especially Pakistan and China, eroding India's strategic foothold and raising new security concerns.

However, last week signaled a shift. Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Masri met with Acting Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mottaki in Dubai, the highest level of communication since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban movement expressed its interest in strengthening political and economic relations with India, describing it as a “major regional and economic power.”

The talks reportedly focused on expanding trade and utilizing Iran's Chabahar port, which India is developing to bypass Pakistan's Karachi and Gwadar ports.

How important is this meeting? Delhi has now given the Taliban leadership the de facto legitimacy it has sought from the international community since its return to power, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think tank, told me.

“The fact that this treatment comes from India – a country that has never had friendly relations with the Taliban before, makes this even more significant, and it is also a diplomatic victory for the Taliban,” he says.

Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, countries have adopted diverse approaches to dealing with the regime, balancing diplomatic engagement with concerns about human rights and security. China, for example, has gone too far: it has actively engaged with the Taliban, focusing on security and economic interests, and has already done so. ambassador In the country.

No country has officially recognized the Taliban government, but as many as 40 countries maintain some form of diplomatic or informal relations with it.

That's why experts like Jayant Prasad, India's former ambassador to Afghanistan, are more cautious about Indian outreach.

He says that over the past three years, India has maintained its contacts with the Taliban through a diplomat in the Foreign Service. India closed its consulates in Afghanistan during the civil war in the 1990s and reopened them in 2002 after the war ended. “We didn't want that gap to develop[again]so we wanted to get involved,” he says. “It's simply a step forward in relationships.”

India has “Historical and cultural ties“With Afghanistan,” External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament in 2023. India has invested more than $3bn (£2.46bn) in more than 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and clinics. Afghan officers, provided thousands of scholarships to students and built a new parliament building.

This reflects an enduring geopolitical reality. “Whatever the nature of the regime in Kabul – monarchist, communist or Islamist – there was a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul,” The Indian Express newspaper male.

Kugelman echoes this sentiment. “India has an important legacy as a development and humanitarian aid donor in Afghanistan, which has translated into public goodwill on the part of the Afghan people, which New Delhi is keen not to lose,” he says.

Interestingly, relations with Delhi seem to be deteriorating amid escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan says that the extremist Pakistani Taliban movement is active from sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Last July, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would do so Continue attacks on Afghanistan As part of an operation aimed at combating terrorism. Days before the talks between India and the Taliban, Pakistani air strikes killed dozens in eastern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan government. The Taliban government denounced the strikes, describing them as a violation of its sovereignty.

This represents a sharp decline in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021, when a senior Pakistani intelligence official was among the first foreign guests to meet the Taliban regime. At the time, many viewed the fall of Kabul as a strategic setback for India.

“While Pakistan is not the only factor pushing India to intensify its outreach to the Taliban, it is true that New Delhi is scoring a major win in its enduring competition with Pakistan by moving closer to long-standing critical Pakistani assets that have now turned against the erstwhile Pakistan.” “The shepherd,” Mr. Kugelman says.

There are other reasons for its spread. India aims to enhance connectivity and access to Central Asia, which it cannot reach directly by land due to Pakistan's denial of transit rights. Experts say Afghanistan is the key to achieving this goal. One strategy is to cooperate with Iran in developing the Chabahar port to improve access to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

“It is easier for Delhi to focus on the Afghan side of this plan by engaging more closely with the Taliban leadership, which fully supports India’s plans as it will help strengthen trade and communication links in Afghanistan,” says Kugelman.

India's recent outreach efforts are clearly helping advance its core interests in Afghanistan under the Taliban: preventing terrorist threats to India, deepening engagement with Iran and Central Asia, maintaining public goodwill through aid, and confronting a faltering Pakistan.

What about the negatives?

“The main risk in strengthening ties with the Taliban is the Taliban themselves. We are talking about a violent and brutal actor with close ties to international terrorist groups – including Pakistani ones – that has done less to reform itself than it did in the 1990s.” says Mr. Kugelman.

“India may hope that if it keeps the Taliban on its side, so to speak, the Taliban will be less likely to undermine India or its interests. And that may be true. But at the end of the day, can you really trust an actor? Will that be the question?” What is worrying about India as it continues to carefully navigate this complex relationship?

Prasad sees no negatives in India's current dealings with Afghanistan, despite concerns about the Taliban's treatment of women. He added, “The Taliban is in complete control of things. Leaving the Taliban boiling over will not help the Afghan people. Some communication with the international community may put pressure on the government to improve its behavior.”

“Remember, the Taliban is desperate for recognition,” Prasad says. “They know that this will only happen after internal reforms.” Such as returning women to public life and restoring their rights to education, work, and political participation.