Topshot – This aerial photo shows a bullet-riddled portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad decorating the Hama municipal building after it was defaced following the anti-government fighters' takeover of the city, on December 6, 2024.
Omar Haj Qaddour | AFP | Getty Images
The dramatic overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime at the hands of rebel forces this weekend could have far-reaching consequences for the Middle Eastern country, alliances and global markets, analysts said.
Over the past two weeks, rebel forces led by the hardline Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham have launched a rapid offensive across the country, seizing major cities along the way. The faction finally took control of the capital, Damascus, over the weekend, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and take refuge in Russia. According to Russian official media reports.
Western countries have greeted Assad's ouster with caution, concerned about the potential for more bloodshed and a power vacuum in Syria if a chaotic and contested leadership transition takes place.
Syria, a country torn by 13 years of brutal civil war, has seen rival factions — including the terrorist group calling itself Islamic State — fighting each other as well as Assad's forces in recent years, raising the possibility of rivals seizing power.
However, for now, the fall of the Assad family after more than 50 years in power has more immediate global ramifications, with Russia and Iran seen as the “losers” of the Syrian dictator's ouster, while the United States, Turkey and Israel are seen among the others. The main beneficiary of regime change.
An anti-government fighter holds a weapon as he holds his position near a distorted portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in the city of Hama after forces captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024.
Omar Haj Qaddour | AFP | Getty Images
“The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus will have repercussions far beyond Syria. The biggest losers are Iran and Russia, without whose support Assad would have long ago lost the nearly 14-year civil war,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. The bank said in an analysis on Monday.
“Iran has likely lost its main route for sending weapons to the Hezbollah terrorist militia in Lebanon,” Schmieding said. “Despite a potential power vacuum in parts of Syria for a period of time, the Middle East may ultimately become less stable as a result.” Comments via email.
The United States and Europe encouraged
Starting with the United States, economists point out that the fall of Assad, and the accompanying weakening of Russia and Iran after the loss of a major ally in the region, would give US President-elect Donald Trump and Western powers a good boost.
“The new reality is when Donald Trump takes office on January 20y “2025 will face a threat board as the opposition looks significantly weaker, and how the US holds many cards,” Bill Blaine, a market strategist, said in email comments on Monday.
He added: “This does not mean that the world has become much less dangerous – it is not entirely clear what kind of new Syria might emerge after the overthrow of Assad – but it seems that power and global initiative could return to the West.”
French President Emmanuel Macron (center) walks with US President-elect Donald Trump (right) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) after a meeting at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris on December 7, 2024.
Julian De Rosa | AFP | Getty Images
The fall of Assad, and the “virtual defeat” of Russia and Iran in the process, has “enormous ramifications for markets in terms of allaying concerns about dollar supremacy, while increasing the momentum that could develop behind Trump's vision for global trade,” Blaine said. “- he noted, in terms of putting the United States and the US dollar front and center.
“The impact on sentiment could be huge in terms of global confidence and redirection of flows into US assets and commodities as growth expectations rise,” Blain said.
Europe could also benefit from regime change in Syria, if it means fewer displaced refugees entering the region – a development that has fueled anti-immigrant sentiment and the rise of populist parties in recent years.
It strengthened Israel and Turkey
Analysts also point out that the main geopolitical “winners” are Israel and Turkey, with the former seeing its regional foe Iran weaken further, thanks to the fall of Assad – while Ankara emerges as the country's “most influential foreign actor”, and Fango Piccoli. The co-president of risk consulting firm Teneo noted on Sunday.
“Turkey, which shares a 560-mile border with Syria, has been the main supporter of opposition groups aiming to oust Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011,” he said in email comments.
“Turkey (for now) is set to be the largest external beneficiary of Assad's fall,” Piccoli said, but warned that Ankara would only feel the benefits of regime change in Damascus “if a dangerous power vacuum does not emerge and power is dismantled.” “It will move relatively peacefully from now on.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a national statement at the Global Climate Action Summit during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 1, 2023.
This Sudanese | Reuters
In other words, Turkey will only benefit if the Assad regime is replaced by a functioning government capable of facing the daunting task of stabilizing a diverse country with competing factions that will need billions of dollars in aid and investment to rebuild. Piccoli said.
He pointed out that “it is not surprising that the Turkish authorities urged Syrian opposition groups to unite after the fall of the regime in Damascus, while avoiding any claims of victory.”
Israel is seen as a beneficiary of Assad's fall because of his influence over Iran, which has used Syria as a supply route for its proxy in Lebanon, the Hezbollah militant group. Israel is looking to severely weaken this supply chain as part of its military campaign against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
In a note on Monday, Quantum Strategy's David Roche described Assad's fall as the first major geopolitical shift that weakens the long-standing “axis of authoritarian regimes” including Iran and Russia.
“It does not eliminate the conflict between Israel and Iran. But it strengthens the hand of Israel and the United States to continue to reduce Iran’s economic power (which Trump will do with tough sanctions at first). Ultimately, Iran’s nuclear ambitions must still collapse.” Roche said: “It must be dealt with militarily, but that will come later (end of 2025 or 2026?).”
Russia weakened
The other most prominent “loser” from the overthrow of Assad is his ally and supporter, Russia, which has helped support the Assad regime since the beginning of the civil war. This time, Moscow's focus on the conflict in Ukraine limited the amount of military aid it was willing and able to provide to Assad's forces.
There is no doubt that Russia will be concerned about how much influence — and good will — it can expect from the new leadership in Syria. Moscow has a vested interest in keeping the new government on side because it operates an air base in Hmeimim, along with a naval base in Tartus that gives it access to the Mediterranean Sea.
Opposition forces have given the Kremlin guarantees that they will guarantee the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria. According to Reuters, citing Russian news agenciesBut Russia's long-term military presence in the country is far from certain.
A man sits in front of a poster depicting ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin, reading in Arabic, “Syria stands with the Russian Federation,” in the Syrian coastal city of Tartus on July 24. 2022.
Louay Bishara | AFP | Getty Images
Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, called Assad's ouster “a huge insult to Putin, who has focused too much on the fact that he has never abandoned his allies.”
“The limits of Russia’s military power have now been exposed – it is incapable of fighting multiple wars, and remains embroiled in Ukraine. Putin is struggling to hold on to the prized asset of the warm-water port of Tartus – and if he holds it, he may be able to.” “They had to give Türkiye concessions elsewhere,” Ash said.
He also noted that Putin “is now going into the Ukrainian peace talks from a position of weakness,” adding that developments in Syria make “a better peace in Ukraine” more likely.
As for Iran, strategist Ash said that Tehran's misfortunes have only increased, after Israel has already severely weakened its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
“Iran – The situation is going from bad to worse with the fall of another proxy domino, Hezbollah, and now Assad. Could Tehran be next? Could we see internal forces emerging again?” Ash said in emailed comments, asking what Tehran could do now to “stop the rot” of its influence.
