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The writer is president of the Rockefeller International Foundation. His last book is “What went wrong with capitalism'
As Donald Trump prepares to take office, his victory is still widely seen as part of a global story about disillusioned voters turning against sitting leaders. But this revolution is not global. This is limited to the developed world.
Last year, established parties lost 85% of elections in developed countries, compared to 25% on average in the early 2000s. In developing countries, the mood has shifted in the other direction. Incumbents lost about 25 percent of elections in 2024, down from 50 percent in the early 2000s. Opinion polls tell the same story: the proportion of respondents who approve of their leader has fallen to nearly 30% in developed countries, while remaining steady above 50% in developing countries.
The holders of these positions are as popular as ever in the developing world, if not more so. So what is the secret of this big difference?
Hostility to the powers that be in Europe, Japan, and the United States has been linked to varying degrees to recent rises in immigration and commodity prices, fueling a sense that the system is increasingly rigged and biased against the average person. This further deteriorates public confidence in government in the long run. But all of these forces are less acute or nonexistent at all in many developing democracies, including large democracies where incumbent parties have won, led by India, Indonesia, and Mexico.
Voters in the United States and Europe said one of their biggest problems last year was inflation, as the legacy of the pandemic sent prices for basic necessities painfully high. Because inflation rose more sharply in developed countries, the shock felt by voters was deeper.
By 2024 in the United States, for example, the price of eggs was still 200 percent higher than before the pandemic — compared to about 50 percent higher in India and Indonesia. Even after adjusting for this broader rise in inflation, house prices rose by 17 percent in developed countries, compared to just 3 percent in developing countries, which helps explain why unaffordable housing sparks strong anti-incumbent sentiment in United States and United Kingdom.
At the same time, the increase in migration has become a hot electoral issue in the West, but not in developing countries, which are largely considered starting points rather than destinations for migrants.
Although the post-pandemic recovery has led to a lot Greater gains for the rich than for the restHowever, the gap has widened relatively slowly in the developing world. Since 1980, the income share of the top 1 percent in the United States has doubled to 21 percent, while it has risen by just three points to 18 percent on average in major developing economies. Even more surprising is that Mexico is one of the few countries where the income share falls below 1 percent.
The growing impact of inflation, immigration and inequality helps explain why only about 20 percent of Americans express confidence in government, down from a peak of more than 70 percent in the 1960s. In developing countries, confidence is rising on average, and has been boosted in the past decade by huge gains in countries where incumbents won last year. Nearly 50 percent of Mexicans and more than 70 percent of Indians and Indonesians now express confidence in their government.
One reason for the rise in trust is the rapid digital transformation of government, which is improving the delivery of public services by cutting out corrupt intermediaries. By 2022, led by India's gains, developing country governments have surpassed their developed counterparts on the World Bank's “Government Technology Maturity” index.
In the developing world, electoral battles are more private and local. In Mexico, the ruling party won last year partly because of its record in the fight against poverty, and in Indonesia because of the popularity of outgoing President Joko Widodo despite accusations that he was appointing his son as his successor. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffered the loss of his legislative majority, but won a third term, thanks to the support he achieved through more efficient delivery of welfare benefits. Across India, incumbent parties performed well in recent state elections as well.
It seems likely that these mood shifts will continue. In 2025, polls show that incumbents will lose all three national elections in the developed world – in Germany, Australia and Canada. There will be fewer major national elections in the developing world and emerging markets, but opinion polls show more mixed results. Current office holders are headed for defeat in national elections in Poland and Romania, and victory in Ecuador, and in major legislative elections in Argentina and the Philippines. Currently, much of the developing world sees no urgent reason to abandon the homeless.
