New year. A time to reflect, make decisions and predict exactly where each team will finish at the end of the 2024-25 Premier League season.
Although we can't accurately predict how often you'll use your shiny new gym membership over the next few months, or how strictly you'll adhere to the “New Year, New Me” mantra, Opta league predictions The model helps paint a picture of what the table might look like by the time May swings around.
Using betting market odds and Opta power ratings, the model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss), based on a team's historical and recent performance.
These results are then used to simulate the remaining league matches thousands of times to see how many times teams finish in each position to create a final table prediction.
So, with the Premier League reaching the halfway mark, catch the latest from Boxing Day as we look at how the Premier League schedule could shape up in five months' time.
Liverpool to lift the cup
It is somewhat unsurprising that Arne Slott's side sit at the top of the predictions list, with a 91.3% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy.
The Reds currently lead by eight points, having lost just once so far this season in all competitions. Despite concerns off the pitch – namely the continuing uncertainty over the futures of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose contracts expire next summer – Liverpool were in scintillating form.
They have won their last three league games in a row, scoring 14 goals in the process. They scored six goals against Tottenham on December 22 before scoring five unanswered goals against West Ham at the London Stadium on Sunday.
Can anyone stop them?
We end 2024 with a win in the capital 😍 #WHULIV pic.twitter.com/rIBrfWon7v
– Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 29, 2024
Manchester City will finish in the top four
Two wins in 14 matches in all competitions. By their standards, City's recent form has been very poor.
But while it seems unlikely that the champions will retain the Premier League title this season, they are a team that can never be written off.
Given their dominance in previous seasons, Opta still has a 40.8% chance of reaching fourth place. The team currently sits in fifth place after ending the year with a much-needed 2-0 win over Leicester – a result that manager Pep Guardiola described as a “relief”.
Despite climbing to the lofty heights of second place this season, according to Opta, high-flying Forest have no chance of repeating the Foxes' title-winning heroics of 2015-16.
The prediction model gives them a 0% chance of finishing first, but predicts Nuno Espirito Santo's side will finish the season in a respectable fifth place.
We are in this together. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/COUQPkzPXr
– Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) December 29, 2024
Drop zone
Unlike Forest, the expected schedule makes for interesting viewing for fans of Leicester City, Ipswich and Southampton.
The three teams who were promoted from the Championship last season are expected to drop straight away, with the struggling Saints given an 83.8% chance of remaining bottom of the league.
New manager Ivan Juric said his style of football has similarities to metal music but he hopes they will still be alive in his team in the second half of the season.
Bottom half end for Manchester United
United have a 14.1% chance of finishing 12th this season. Despite the arrival of new coach Ruben Amorim, the Red Devils have struggled for any sort of consistency in recent weeks, having won four, drawn and lost five during the Portuguese's tenure.
Their next three matches – Newcastle at home, Liverpool away and Arsenal away in the FA Cup – could ultimately determine their season.
Expected Premier League schedule
According to Opta:
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Newcastle United
7. Aston Villa
8. Bournemouth
9. Tottenham
10. Fulham
11. Brighton
12. Manchester United
13. Brentford
14. Crystal Palace
15. West Ham
16. Everton
17. Wolves
18. Leicester City
19. Ipswich Town
20. Southampton
