What happens if TikTok is banned?

TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19 – unless the Supreme Court accepts a… A final legal attempt from Its Chinese owner, ByteDance, said doing so would be unconstitutional.

But even if the nation's highest judiciary agreed with lower courts – and Congress – that the platform poses a threat to national security, would that actually prevent Americans from using it?

Will there be ways to bypass the ban — or can President-elect Donald Trump find a way to stop a law he says he opposes, even if the courts uphold it.

Whatever happens to TikTok, who will benefit from the uncertainty surrounding its future?

The most likely way the US would ban TikTok would be to order app stores, such as the Google Play Store and Apple's App Store, to make it unavailable for download in that region.

US lawmakers have already asked tech companies to be prepared to remove the app from their stores if the ban goes into effect.

This means that people can no longer use a legitimate means to access TikTok, although it also means that people who have already obtained it will still have it on their phones.

Since the app would no longer be available to the public, new updates would no longer be delivered to users in the US – which would make the app even more glitchy and, ultimately, unusable.

Not to mention, many updates are provided to fix vulnerabilities in the apps, so if TikTok stops getting updates, it could provide hackers with millions of devices to target.

Naturally, there are ways to get around this ban.

There are already several videos circulating on TikTok telling users how to use a VPN (virtual private network) – a way to make it look like you're in another area.

The region of app stores can also be changed on most devices, so anyone can theoretically access apps from other countries – although this could cause other issues, not to mention potentially violating the terms of service agreements.

It is also possible to install applications downloaded from the Internet by modifying the device – which may violate copyright law – and comes with its own risks. However, the government has also anticipated this, so it also proposes to ban “internet hosting services” from giving people access to the app.

So, if the ban takes this kind of form, it seems likely that those who are determined to use TikTok after it goes into effect will be able to do so — but it won't be the experience they're used to.

There are still other methods available to the government in the future – for example, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered internet providers to block access to the app completely.

Even if people use a VPN, TikTok could theoretically look at a user's device and determine if their mobile number starts with +1, see if they're based in the US, and then simply present them with a screen showing the app. Not available in their country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok will decide to help the government with its own ban – but Reuters reports that it plans to do so.

TikTok's lawyer told the Supreme Court he believes the app will “go dark” in the United States unless it rules in its favor.

The complexity of the problem means that even experts are unclear about what will happen next.

Professor Milton L. said: Mueller of the Georgia Institute of Technology — who filed a legal brief in support of TikTok — said the lack of clarity about the extent to which the United States could expand its law enforcement authority makes knowing what technically happens if the ban continues difficult to determine.

But what is clear, he said, is the impact on users and the Internet itself.

He added: “This will fully legitimize Internet fragmentation along national or jurisdictional borders.”

Trump was clear that he did not want the law to take effect, and asked the Supreme Court to postpone its implementation while he sought a “political solution.”

But if the justices uphold it, Trump does not have the power to overturn the law, which would take effect the day before he returns to office.

But he can simply ask the Department of Justice not to enforce it.

The government will effectively be telling Apple and Google that they will not be penalized for continuing to allow access to TikTok, meaning the law will remain in place but will essentially be redundant.

Obviously, companies may not feel comfortable about breaking the law even if they are told it is okay to do so – it would effectively require them to take the boss's word that they will not face punishment.

TikTok says it has 170 million users in the United States, who will spend, on average, 51 minutes per day on the app in 2024.

Blocking TikTok or making it less usable creates a huge opportunity for its big tech rivals, says Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, which is owned by Meta, which is owned by Google, are the most suitable for displaced users, creators and advertisers,” she says.

Facebook could also benefit, although Ms. Enberg says, as with all meta platforms: Controversial political changes Announced by President Mark Zuckerberg could reduce its appeal.

Users bring in advertisers – so a ban could be a big financial boost for those platforms.

“The chief marketing officers we spoke to confirmed that they would shift their media dollars to Meta and Google if they could no longer advertise on TikTok — and this is the same behavior we saw in India when they banned TikTok in 2020,” Forrester said. Principal analyst Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, which is also owned by ByteDance, would have been an obvious place for people to go after the ban – but the law stipulates that it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the company. This means that Lemon8 will also likely have difficulty getting access in the US.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which made its name by hosting live streams, a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is particularly known for gamers, although it continues to grow with other content.

Other Chinese-owned platforms, Like Xiao Hongshu — known as RedNote among its US users — has seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

However, some point out that no existing app can truly replace TikTok, particularly the TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to purchase products directly from videos, and makes a lot of money for US content creators.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there was no direct competitor people could easily switch to — and noted that his agency was signing new contracts with clients to create TikTok Shop campaigns in late December.

So far, ByteDance has been resolute against offering any sale of its award-winning assets in the US.

But could this change if it is actually banned — and when the president who prides himself on “the art of the deal” returns to the White House?

Potential buyers keep lining up – with them Bloomberg News reported Tuesday That the company was looking to sell to billionaire Elon Musk TikTok has since described this As “pure fantasy”.

Trump's former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have previously expressed interest in buying it.

McCourt, the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he had secured verbal commitments worth $20 billion from a group of investors to make a bid for TikTok.

There's a more left-wing – and considerably less serious – proposed owner.

The biggest YouTuber in the world MrBeast He claimed he was now in the race to make a deal After billionaires contacted him about this topic.

Although it may seem like a joke, he has a big financial incentive to try to save the app — MrBeast has more than 100 million followers on TikTok.