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It is not yet clear whether the Gaza ceasefire will enter into force. But if the war is already about to end, what does it mean for the world?
For Israel, the impact appears to be double-edged. The country's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, can claim to have turned a national tragedy into a strategic victory. Hamas has been destroyed, if not completely destroyed. Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group that constituted the most armed and threatening part of the Iranian “axis of resistance,” has also become exhausted. Iran and Israel exchanged direct fire. But most Iranian missiles have failed to penetrate the defenses of Israel and its allies, and the Islamic Republic appears weaker than it has been for many decades.
At the strategic level, Israel emerges from this conflict as a superpower in the Middle East, with its military deterrence capacity fully restored, and its enemies in disarray. But in return, Israel has suffered enormous damage to its reputation. It is believed that about 46 thousand people were killed during the Israeli attack and Gaza was turned into rubble. Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes – putting him in the same legal category as Vladimir Putin. Like the Russian leader, Netanyahu will now find it more difficult to travel internationally.
Israel's popularity has declined in international opinion polls. Young people – even in the United States – are now more hostile towards the country. Bio reconnaissance A report in April concluded that “young Americans are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinian people than with the Israeli people.” A third of adults under the age of 30 said their sympathies lay entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people, compared to 14 percent who supported Israel.
Israelis can hope that views will soften over time, especially if peace is restored. Netanyahu and his allies also believe that friends in the White House will be more important than enemies on American campuses.
But Trump's friendship may not be unconditional. There is clear shock among the Israeli far right that the incoming US administration has put its weight behind the ceasefire and hostage release agreement that was negotiated in the White House under Biden. Hopes in Israel that Trump would give it complete freedom to deal with the Palestinians, as it saw fit, have been dealt a severe blow.
Trump's decision to push hard for peace now may reflect two key factors. The first is his desire to take credit for reaching a deal and releasing the hostages. The second reason is that although Israel enjoys enthusiastic support from the Republican right, it is not the only important country in the region. During his first term as president, Trump's first trip abroad was to Saudi Arabia.
The incoming Trump administration is now likely to push for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia — which was also a major goal of the Biden administration. This is likely to provide a glimmer of hope for the Palestinians, as it is widely believed that the Saudi price for normalization will be tangible progress towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, this may be a price the Israelis are unwilling to pay, which could mean that the Saudi-Israeli deal remains a mirage.
The war in Gaza also had global and regional importance. One reason the United States and its Western allies have been reluctant to put too much pressure on Israel is their belief that Iran is a common enemy. Over the past year, Western officials have increasingly spoken of their belief that they are now waging a global struggle against a loose “axis of adversaries” made up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
By weakening Iran, Israel has weakened this axis as well. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was, to a large extent, an indirect result of Israel's devastating attack on Hezbollah, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad.
The collapse of Assad's authority, in turn, was a strong blow to both Iran and Russia, which intervened militarily on his behalf. Russia has been using Syria as a base to project its power, and now it must step back. Ironically, Israel itself reacted to the fall of Assad much more cautiously than many in the West, fearing that jihadist forces would move into the power vacuum in Syria.
The latest casualty of the Gaza war was the “rules-based international order” promoted by the Biden administration. The sympathy and support Israel received after the October 7 attacks led the United States to tolerate repeated violations of international humanitarian law during the Israeli offensive in Gaza. Bringing back a rules-based order may be as difficult as physical reconstruction in Gaza.
