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Two topics dominated the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos last week: Donald Trump and artificial intelligence. Of the two, the latter was more interesting and certainly more important. A lot of attention was devoted to discussion DibsicChinese surprise. However, we just learned that knowledge differences: no country will monopolize these new technologies. He surprised these markets. With new technologies, such surprises are not surprising. But it does not change the big question, which is what the advanced intelligence of the machine means to all of us.
Humans are both social and smart. This combination is the “killer application”. They were allowed to control the planet. Human intelligence invented the techniques of the general purpose that formed the world, From taming fire to creating computers. However, with computers that think, this may change. Please PascalThe mathematics and philosopher said in the seventeenth century, “”The man is nothing but reeds, which is the most weak thing in nature, but it is a reaging.“Is this uniqueness approaching its end?
In Davos, I attended two adequate discussions of bonuses and risk of progress in artificial intelligence. One was interview to Sidi Dimis HasabisThe co -founder of Google DeepMind and the Receiving of the Nobel Prize for Chemistry, written by Rola Khalaf, FT editor. The other was interview to Dario AmoudiFounder and CEO of the Antarbur and author of Love machinesBy Zani Minton BeddosEconomist Editor.
The interview with Hassabis confirmed the recent developments in our ability to conduct scientific analysis, especially in biology. More than 2 million researchers use AlfafoldHe said the Deepmind program has evolved. “We have stabbed all the well -known proteins for science, every 200 million. (T) is the ruling on the policy. Will his doctorate a doctorate takes entirely to find a single protein structure. So 200 million had taken a billion years of doctorate time. We have given everything to the world Free. ” This, which he developed, is “science in digital speed”. The possibility of opening us before us is a great acceleration in medical progress. In fact, we may have 50 to 100 years of normal progress within five to ten years.
Widely, Amodei argued, we can imagine artificial intelligence as “”A country of geniuses in the data centerOne of them may be the Chinese cheaper than before. However, are these geniuses really? My test will be whether Amnesty International could produce Einstein's general theory of relativity.
It seems reasonable to have the effect of problem solving, whether it is the level of “genius” or not, noticeable. Among other things can accelerate improvements in knowledge, productivity growth and prosperity. Both are desirable. In recent decades, the increases in the “productivity of total factors” – the best scale of technical progress – have been modest. Moreover, the huge numbers still live in extreme poverty, in a frustrating manner, Progress.
However, it is also clear that accelerated progress can create difficulties as well. The labor market structure may change widely, for example, in this case, a sharp decrease in demand for workers whose assets are trained, but largely routine. The expectations of these effects differ. 2023 paper Written by Eric Bringgloffson and Jabriel Anger notes that, as it was true throughout the computer revolution, the effects on productivity may be modest. However, this time it may be different, with increased productivity, but it is significant economic and social changes in return. Again, depending on how society responds, a successful artificial intelligence may lead to “technology”, with greater concentrations of wealth. The invention of huge numbers of new treatments may significantly increase health care costs and also costs to deal with lives that extend to a large extent even if they are healthy. Are people ready to live alongside their great ancestors? Thus, it seems that good things may create real challenges.
Beyond that, the development of the imagined artificial intelligence creates great risks. How can one control its use by rogue actors, including hostile countries, terrorists and mass murderers? What are the moral provisions that one allows Amnesty International in the war? How can one control the use of artificial intelligence in monitoring? Does the “older brother” watch us forever? Again, what do we do about fake manufacturing and fake news? How does freedom survive all these threats?
Hassabis is clear that we need effective global borders to use artificial intelligence. In the era of broken international cooperation and contempt for the idea of ”bases -based international system”, will China and the United States together make artificial intelligence safe? It seems unlikely, not least because they have different views on how to use these techniques.
In 2015, I wrote skeptical in general condition Most likely (modest) probably the productivity of new technologies. In the next few years, it may eventually prove a mistake. However, I also noticed that if we were approaching instead. “Uniqueness– Artificial intelligence goes beyond all human intelligence – everything must change.
One of the great ideas in Frank Herbert Sand dunes The series is that in the distant past (our future), humanity has launched a successful jihad against the machines that are thinking. After that, humans had to become super. Pioneer Explain “Humans have put these machines to calm our sense of beauty, and the necessary self, from which we issue live judgments. Of course, the machines have been destroyed.”
This anxiety may prove wise. But I am realistic: artificial intelligence outside the Bandura box.
