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The Wall Street banks expect that Tesla cars sales will grow more slowly this year than the co -founder Elon Musk expected, as Donald Trump is seeking to dismantle climate policies dating back to the Biden era that prefers electric cars.
Tesla is preparing to sell 2.07 million vehicles this year, an increase of 16 percent in 2024, according to analysts assembled by FactSet. This will be a recovery from last year, when the group reported its first decline Since 2011It is much lower than 20 to 30 percent expected in October and less than the previous two -year -old annual growth rate of about 40 percent.
The figures confirm the challenge facing Tesla from Trump's pledge to decline the policies that have strengthened EV sales. Last week, an executive order said that the White House would consider “the abolition of unfair subsidies and other incomplete market abnormalities of the government.”
“Trump's opposition 2.0 has reached the EV incentives 2025,” said Adam Jonas, an analyst Morgan Stanley.
Tesla, who is about the profits of the fourth quarter on Wednesday, will strike if Trump canceled tax credit worth $ 7,500 for EV buyers. Barclays Dan Levy analyst estimated that about two -thirds of the American Tesla sales benefit from credits.
Changes in EV are likely to enter from 2026; Some analysts said that Tesla sales numbers may be strengthened by buyers who rush to complete sales before that. Levy predicted a “large EV 'eve” in the second half of 2025 before the storage units decreased the following year; Other analysts believed that before the dodgers was already enhancing Tesla sales.
Some analysts asked about the pre -purchase size; BNP PARIBAS EXANE This year's growth grows can reach 12 percent.
Jonas said that Tesla investors are also concerned with “pressure in the EV market and the China Competition (and) the slowdruck folders.”
The growth of EV sales in the United States last year due to the high prices and the lack of new models; The stake of the EV 8 percent market, compared to 7.6 percent in 2023.
Meanwhile, Trump's trade policy towards China can exacerbate tensions with the second largest market in Tesla.
Mark's loud support for Trump and interference in British, Italian and German policy has stopped some potential customers. The European Union Tesla sales of EVS decreased by 13 percent on an annual basis in 2024, according to ACEA, the European Automobile Industry Authority.
“She was a pioneer in the market, and she is still in many ways, but people are stopped,” said Jenny Bacqueli, founder of Electriple.com, an advice site for the purchase of EV.
Sheila's wallet in Sheila is another reason for investing anxiety. The only new model that has been released since the Y Sport Utility Motent in 2020 is Cybertruck, which starts from $ 82,000 and sells Between 9000 and 12000 The units are a quarter.
This year, Tesla renews the Y, but last year it canceled plans for a new car worth $ 25,000 called Form 2 in public places known as NV91 internally. Musk was mysterious about the plans of the NV91 successor, prompting some analysts to speculate that it might announce this year's “model 2.5”.
The company hinted to investors that the new model may come in the second half of this year; Many expect more details this week.
Musk has already predicted that Tesla's total sales may be at the top of 20 million in the future. But even with a new offer at reasonable prices, Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said, this is unlikely. It is expected that Tesla eventually achieve annual sales of 6 million at most.
Despite the risk of sales growth, analysts said that the future of Tesla seems bright – thanks to its axis in artificial intelligence. Musk is the gambling that advances in artificial intelligence technology made it possible to build a A fleet of independent “robotics” referee.
“Selling cars is a small piece of that,” Narayan said, adding that the new revenue current in Tesla will come from a semi -self -driving program.
Tesla also builds a human robot that Musk said will be “the largest product of any kind” and the company must pay to a 25 True evaluation, from the 1.3 trillion market value today.
“The White House” is the organizational friend “in opening the value on Tesla shares, as it is possible that the independent timeline (for the car) will be accelerated.
He said: “There will be an EV focus on emissions and removes $ 7,500 of tax credits,” but this will be balanced by “focusing on creating artificial intelligence, which provides highly favorable winds.”
