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“I think the president-elect is having some fun.” This was the reaction of the Canadian ambassador to Washington to Donald Trump's first proposal that her country become the 51st US state.
The threatening “joke” is one of Trump's favorite means of communication. But now the incoming president has spoken so extensively about his ambition to integrate Canada into the United States that Canadian politicians are forced to take his ambitions seriously and publicly reject them.
Canadians take little solace that Trump has ruled out invading their country and is instead threatening them with “economic force.” But he refused to rule out military action to achieve his ambitions to “reclaim” the Panama Canal and control Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory.
More light banter? The German Chancellor and the French Foreign Minister took Trump's threats seriously enough warning Greenland is covered by the EU's common defense clause. In other words – at least in theory – the European Union and the United States could end up at war over Greenland.
Trump's defenders and sycophants are treating the whole thing as a big joke. The New York Post announced a new “Donroe Doctrine” — the 19th-century message to Europeans not to interfere in the Western Hemisphere — with Greenland renamed “Our Land.” Brandon Gill, a Republican congressman, smiled and said Canadians, Panamanians and Greenlanders should be too. “Honor” With the idea of becoming Americans.
But the rights of small states are no joke. The forced or coercive takeover of a country by a larger neighbor constitutes the biggest alarm bell in world politics. It is a sign that a rogue state is on the rise. That is why the Western coalition realized that it was necessary to support Ukraine's resistance to Russia. This is also why the United States organized an international coalition to expel Iraq from Kuwait in the early 1990s.
Attacks on small countries caused the outbreak of World Wars I and II. When the British government agonized in 1914 over whether to go to war with Germany, David Lloyd George, who later became Prime Minister, wrote to his wife: “I have fought hard for peace. . . But I am led to the conclusion that if the little Belgian nationality is attacked by Germany, all my traditions will be destroyed. . . “We will engage in the war side.”
Britain and France refused to protect Czechoslovakia from Nazi Germany in 1938. But within a year, they admitted their mistake and offered a security guarantee to Poland – the next small neighbor on the German target list. The invasion of Poland sparked the beginning of the conflict.
Trump's supporters are extremely upset by any comparison between his speech and the speech of aggressors from the past or present. They argue that his demands are actually aimed at strengthening the free world, struggling against authoritarian China and perhaps Russia as well. Trump has justified his expansionist ambitions in Canada, Greenland, and Panama on the grounds of national security.
Another argument is that Trump's threat is merely a negotiating tactic. His supporters sometimes claim that he puts pressure on allied countries to do what is necessary, for the common good of the Western alliance. Aren't many of Greenland's 55,000 people seeking independence from Denmark, they say? Aren't Canadians tired of the incompetent “woke” elite running their country?
But these are weak arguments. It would be legitimate for Trump to try to convince Greenlanders that they might be better off as Americans. But the threat of military or economic coercion is infuriating. His claims that many Canadians want to join the United States are also false. That was the idea unacceptable By 82 per cent of Canadians in a recent poll.
As for grand strategy, the truth is that Trump's threats to Greenland, Panama, and Canada are an absolute gift to Russia and China. If Trump can claim that US control of Greenland or the Panama Canal is a strategic necessity, why would it be illegitimate for Putin to claim that Russian control of Ukraine is a strategic necessity? If a generation can claim that expanding its borders is America's “manifest destiny,” who can object when Xi Jinping insists that control of Taiwan is China's manifest destiny?
Both Russia and China have long dreamed of dismantling the Western alliance. Trump is doing their job for them. Just a few weeks ago, it would have been difficult for the Kremlin to see Canada's main news magazine grace the cover. story On “Why America Can't Invade Canada.” The idea that European leaders would activate the EU's mutual defense clause against the United States – not Russia – seemed like a fantasy. But these are the new facts.
Even if Trump never carries out his threats, he has already caused enormous damage to America's global standing and its system of alliances. He has not reached his position yet.
It seems unlikely that Trump will order an invasion of Greenland. (Although it was once unlikely that he would try to overthrow the election.) Canada is even less likely to be intimidated into giving up its independence. But the mere fact that the next president shreds international norms is a disaster. Any laughter at Trump's “jokes” is misplaced. What we are witnessing is a tragedy, not a comedy.
