Donald Trump was typically blunt when he first warned in December that there would be a “big push” in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released before his inauguration.
The US president-elect's aggressive tone had the desired effect, adding momentum to long-stalled talks, culminating in Israel and Hamas agreeing on Wednesday on a ceasefire agreement that would halt the devastating 15-month war in Gaza and release the remaining 98 prisoners held in the Gaza Strip. Strips.
With Steve Witkoff, Trump's New York real estate friend turned Middle East envoy, playing a central role as he shuttled between Qatar — which hosted the negotiations — and Israel, the mediators finally succeeded in securing the deal that had long eluded the Biden administration.
This should mean that the people of Gaza, who endured untold suffering during the bloodiest war in their history, will finally get some relief from Israeli bombs and bullets, and can tentatively begin to think about rebuilding.
Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages held since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials, will begin to hope their nightmare will end. The prisoners, who have endured a hellish life trapped in Hamas' network of tunnels, will be released if the agreement is reached.
The main question is whether it can continue. Will this be a temporary ceasefire, or will it lead to a permanent ceasefire, which is what the mediators, the Palestinians, and the region as a whole so desperately want?
Trump has already claimed victory in helping secure a deal where President Joe Biden failed. But the durability of the truce brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt could depend on his willingness to continue using US political power, including ensuring that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right government completes the deal.
The incoming Trump administration is filled with strong pro-Israel figures, and during his first term, Trump showed little compassion or patience toward the Palestinians as he implemented a series of pro-Israel actions that upended decades of American policy. But the hope is that Trump will now look to own the deal and ensure its success.
But the threat of spoilers from all sides, including Hamas, will remain, whose military capacity has been severely weakened, but not yet eliminated.
The ceasefire agreement is based on a three-stage proposal first endorsed by Biden in May. It will begin with an initial 42-day truce, during which 33 hostages – including women, the elderly and the wounded – will be released in exchange for an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli forces are supposed to redeploy away from urban centers and allow aid to flow into the sector, which is suffering from famine and disease.
The second phase is the most challenging, which aims to reach a permanent ceasefire, the release of the remaining hostages – including Israeli soldiers – and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
At this stage, the precise details of which have yet to be negotiated, Netanyahu's commitment will be fully tested.
He repeatedly ruled out agreeing to end the war permanently or withdraw his forces from Gaza. At the same time, Hamas has demanded the release of high-ranking prisoners, including those sentenced to life imprisonment for murder and terrorism, in exchange for the release of soldiers held hostage – a bitter pill for Israelis to swallow.
Netanyahu is already facing resistance from far-right allies and ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich described the deal as a “surrender.” This past week, Ben Gvir called for people to join him in resigning from the government.
While the veteran prime minister's ruling coalition was strengthened by the addition of another right-wing party in September, the departure of Ben Gvir and Smotrich will leave him with a minority government. This could force Netanyahu to hold early elections, bringing with it the political reckoning at the ballot box that he has sought to avoid.
There is still no clarity on the crucial issue of who will manage the sector. Neither Israel, nor the United States, nor Arab countries want Hamas – which has ruled Gaza since 2007 – to regain control, but Netanyahu has not presented a workable plan for the “day after” the war. He rejected American and Arab pressure to work with the Palestinian Authority, which controls limited parts of the occupied West Bank.
He is angry at any move towards establishing a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.
The Biden administration has been talking for months with Arab partners about the possibility of forming an international security force that would work alongside an interim Palestinian administration backed by the Palestinian Authority — including Gazans — to handle civilian affairs.
But the United States will not put boots on the ground, and it is unclear who, if anyone, will do so, given the risks of being drawn into the insurgency and being seen to be doing Israel's bidding. It is not clear whether Trump will propose his own plan, or even whether he has thought about Gaza's future after his inauguration day.
However, the needs of the people of Gaza could not be more urgent. The Israeli attack led to the death of more than 46,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, including civilians and fighters. Entire families have been wiped out, and a generation of children has been orphaned and scarred for life.
Schools, hospitals, homes, offices and businesses were destroyed. The vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been forced to leave their homes. Many do not know what they will find when they return.
Trump will likely focus on pushing for a grand deal that will lead to Saudi Arabia normalizing its relations with Israel. But Riyadh insists that this can only happen if Israel takes irreversible steps towards establishing a Palestinian state.
With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel is more likely to want to annex the West Bank or increase hostilities with Iran than to make concessions to the Palestinians.
It took nearly a year of negotiations to stop the war. But compared to the daunting task of rebuilding Gaza, not to mention the elusive goal of achieving sustainable peace in the region, that may prove to be the easy part.
