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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world
“Our strategy on definitions will be the shooting first and ask questions later.” This was what one of the main economic policy makers in Donald Trump told me late last year.
This type of Swagger Macho is currently modern in Washington. But the shooting of the American president from the hip Very dangerous tactics For America itself, as well as the countries that targeted it with definitions.
Possible economic risks of the United States – high inflation and industrial turmoil – well known.
The strategic consequences of America are less clear immediately – but it can be dangerous and longer. Trump's tariff threatens to destroy the Western alliance unit. It cultivates the seeds of an alternative group formed by many countries that are newly threatened by America. The cooperation will be informal at the beginning, but it will be crucified whenever the wars of tariffs continue.
The collapse of Western unity will be a dream that is achieved for Russia and China. Trump himself may not care. He often expressed his admiration for Vladimir Putin and Shi Jinping. But Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz – the men who appointed Trump as Minister of Foreign Affairs and National Security – claim that they believe that containing Chinese power is the central strategic challenge facing the United States.
If this is the case, it is very stupid for Trump to impose a customs tariff on China, Canada and Mexico (although Mexicans may have negotiated for one month stay). When doing this, it risks the creation of a convergence in attention between these three countries – as well as the European Union, which has been said to be compatible with the treatment of customs tariffs.
When the Biden administration took office in 2021, the European Union was about to pay a new investment agreement with China. But this was abandoned after pressing from Washington and mistakes by Beijing. By the end of the Biden period, the United States and the European Commission were working closely on efforts to “calm risk” with China and restrict major technology exports.
The main vision of the Biden administration was that if the United States was involved in a global competition with China, it is more likely to prevail if it can persuade other advanced democracies to work alongside it. On the contrary, Trump decided to chase America's allies with a greater strength than its opponents. The possible result is that it will bring these allies back to China.
European policy makers already know that the ambitious goals they set for green transition will be impossible without Chinese electric cars, batteries and solar panels. The threat of loss of American markets will make the Chinese market seem necessary. When I suggested to a large European policy maker last week that the European Union may now consider warm up to China again, she replied: “Believe me, this conversation is already happening.”
Some influential Europeans even ask whether the United States or China is now direct threat. This was a ridiculous question just two months ago. But Trump – not something – who talks about ending the independence of Canada, a member state of NATO. It is the Trump and Eileon Musk administration-and not the Chinese-Hu government that encourages the extreme right in Europe.
Chinese embodied support and Beijing support for Russia's war on Ukraine still a great stumbling block between China and Brussels. But if the Trump administration gives up Ukraine – Beijing takes a stronger line with Russia – the method will be open to European tilt towards China.
China will also create new opportunities in Latin America, where the continent aims to threaten America for Panama and Mexico. The aggressive American action against these countries – including military force – is clearly possible, given Trump's determination to restore control of the Panama channel and take over the Mexican drug juice.
But Trump's aggression against Mexico is likely to be inverse results. If the Mexican customs tariff leads to a deep recession, it is likely that the influx of people who head to the United States – as well as the strength of the drug gangs, whose exports are not subject to tariffs.
Canada and Mexico are painfully realized that the possibilities are stacked against them in a trade war with the United States. But they are forced to take revenge. No national leader can look weak in the face of American bullying. Perhaps returning to Trump is probably the right strategic step. As a European Foreign Minister recently told me: “If Trump punctures you in your face and does not reach back, he will hit you again.”
Countries like Britain and Japan that have not yet been distinguished for definitions may breathe a sigh of relief. But they are joking themselves if they believe that keeping the low explosion will buy them immunity. If Trump decides that his first war in the customs tariff has succeeded, he will definitely search for new goals.
Corporaate America also needs to wake up and stop the formulation of the “animal spirits” to the American economy. What Trump mainly offers America is economic security and the destruction of the Western alliance. This will be an economic and strategic disaster for American business – and the United States as a whole.
