By Gram Slattery
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President-elect Donald Trump's advisers now acknowledge that resolving the war in Ukraine will take months and perhaps longer, a stark reality test of his biggest foreign policy promise: reaching a peace deal on his first day in the White House. house.
Two Trump aides, who discussed the war in Ukraine with the president-elect, told Reuters they were considering a months-long timeline for resolving the conflict, describing the first-day promises as a combination of campaign threats and a lack of appreciation for the efforts of US President Donald Trump. The complexity of the conflict and the time it takes to form a new administration.
These assessments are consistent with statements by Trump's new envoy to Russia and Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who said in an interview with Fox News last week that he would like to reach a “solution” to the war within 100 days. , which is far beyond the president-elect's original timeline.
However, even the deadline extended by Kellogg was “overly optimistic,” said John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine who now works at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
“For this to work, Trump has to convince (Russian President Vladimir) Putin that there is a downside to intransigence,” Herbst said.
In the period leading up to his election victory on November 5, Trump announced dozens of times that he would reach an agreement between Ukraine and Russia on his first day in office, if not before.
But in late October, he made a slight shift in his rhetoric and began saying that he could resolve the war “very quickly.”
Since the election, Trump has backed away from his rhetoric further, often simply saying he will “resolve” the conflict, without offering a timeline. The president-elect said that ending the war in Ukraine would be more difficult than reaching a ceasefire in Gaza.
“I think, actually, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is going to be much more difficult,” Trump said when asked about Gaza during a press conference in December. “I find it more difficult.”
Russia has also sent mixed signals regarding a potential peace deal, welcoming direct talks with Trump, while rejecting some ideas put forward by his advisers as unworkable.
The Kremlin declined to comment on the Trump team's updated schedule. Representatives of the incoming Trump administration and the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment.
“Nothing interesting”
Russia has made significant gains on the battlefield in recent months. While these gains have come at a heavy cost in terms of men and materiel, many analysts say Putin has an incentive to slow a deal as he tries to control more Ukrainian territory.
Herbst pointed to comments made earlier this month by Russia's UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzia, who said the peace plans put forward by Trump's advisers were “not relevant.”
While the exact contours of Trump's peace plan are still being considered, Trump's advisers generally support taking the possibility of Ukraine's NATO membership off the table, at least for the foreseeable future, and freezing the current battle lines.
Most of Trump's senior advisers also support giving Ukraine a physical security guarantee, such as establishing a demilitarized zone guarded by European forces.
So far, the Trump team's attempts to end the war have gone erratically, highlighting how campaign promises can collide with the reality of complex diplomatic negotiations.
Reuters reported last week that Kellogg, Trump's envoy to Ukraine, had postponed a planned visit to Kiev before the inauguration, which was seen as part of a fact-finding mission to give officials an early start on the peace plan.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry cited US concerns about violating the Logan Act, which limits the ability of private citizens to negotiate with foreign governments.
“I don't think it's appropriate for me to meet (Putin) until after the 20th, which I hate because people are killing lots and lots of young people every day,” Trump said in a press conference last week.
Meanwhile, a Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters that new Trump administration officials at the State Department, National Security Council and other agencies are still figuring out who has input and jurisdiction over various geopolitical issues.
