The global travel industry is set to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic this month, according to UN Tourism.
She said that during the first nine months of 2024, the number of international arrivals around the world reached 98% of pre-pandemic levels, compared to the same period in 2019.
The remaining 2% gap will close this month, according to the organization, marking a major shift for the industry into a new era of growth.
Most regions around the world have already exceeded this threshold, most notably in the Middle East, where international arrivals rose by 29% during the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019, according to UN Tourism. Growth in the region during that time period was driven by increases in visitors to Qatar (+141%) and Saudi Arabia (+61%).
She added that Africa and Europe have also fully recovered, with arrivals rising by 6% and 1% respectively.
The Americas are neck and neck, approaching 97% (-3%) of international arrivals this year, while Asia-Pacific is at 85% of pre-pandemic levels, with the region still bearing the brunt of the slow return of Chinese travellers. .
Global Growth Centre
International travel in the Asia-Pacific region may be underdeveloped today, but it is expected to be the epicenter of global travel growth in the coming decades.
The number of air passengers is expected to double in less than two decades, jumping from 8.69 billion in 2023 to 19.49 billion by 2042, according to Airports Council International (ACI) Asia Pacific and Middle East.
Most of this growth is expected to come from the Asia-Pacific region. In the next 20 years, the Airport Trade Organization estimates that more than a third of new passengers will come from three countries: China, India and Indonesia.
Hospitality companies are expanding aggressively in the region in anticipation of the millions of people expected to enter the middle class in the next decade.
on “Squawk Asia FundAlan Watts, Hilton's president for Asia Pacific, announced Monday that the company now operates 1,000 hotels in the Asia Pacific region, a goal the company does not expect to reach until 2025.
“This means 200,000 bedrooms for sale per night. We have another 915 (hotels) under construction and in various stages of construction,” he said.
On November 19, Hilton announced a deal to open 150 Spark by Hilton hotels in India, a “premium economy” brand launched by the company in 2023.
“We just signed a deal in Vietnam to buy 14 mid-sized hotels,” Watts said. “So it's the rise of that average traveler that feeds the base of the pyramid.”
Marriott International opened the first Four Points Flex by Sheraton hotel in Japan in November. CEO Anthony Capuano told CNBC Travel In an interview with “Squawk Box Asia” on November 18. Twelve more hotels are expected to open in Japan before the end of the year, according to Marriott.
“Back with a vengeance”
The global recovery has been stymied by the slow return of two types of travellers: outbound Chinese travelers and business travelers.
But both bounce, albeit at different speeds, Watts said.
“Business travel is back with a bang,” he said.
Excluding China, booking trends for business travelers in the first half of 2024 were “very impressive, especially for Southeast Asia,” he said. “Next year is going to be even better.”
He told “Squawk Box Asia” that 2024 was a “tale of two halves” for Chinese travellers.
The first half was characterized by a decline in consumer confidence, Watts said. But he said increased interest in travel in the second half would impact bookings in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025 – most notably to Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia.
“But we believe it will be 2026 before we see China's long-haul market rebound in the United States and Europe,” he added.
