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Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
(adjective and noun) The current holder of office or position
For more than a century, one of the fundamental concepts in political science has been that of… Incumbent Advantage. You could call it electoral gravity, the force that pulls everything toward the person or party running the show. The reasons are many. Being in power confers the benefits of a strong reputation, established fundraising networks, relationships with the media, and a proven track record.
But it is no longer clear that this is true, and many of the same things that used to provide a boost at the ballot box may now lead to a backlash. In 2024, when more than Half of the world's population He was entitled to vote in the elections, and incumbents were swept from the US to the UK and beyond.
When the long-term trend across the democratic world was one of strong economic growth and broader progress, a record of power was a good thing. In the absence of a bad economic shock or blunder, parties can mount successful campaigns that focus on the tangible improvements they achieved during their term.
With recession now the norm, This has been turned upside down. “Vote for us if you want four more years of stable living standards and things getting worse” is not a clear vote winner.
Likewise, in an increasingly fragmented media landscape, where novice politicians can speak directly to voters, being known to mainstream news organizations is no longer a big boost. If Elon Musk has his wayEven the incumbent's fundraising advantage may soon be a thing of the past.
If this trend continues, it does not bode well for sensible centrists, thoughtful rhetoric, and additional political successes. We seem to be living in a new era in which all candidates, both current and foreign, have a strong incentive to run as arrogant populists, promising quick gains and radical reforms.
