Written by Bo Erickson
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republicans led by US President-elect Donald Trump face their first test of unity in Congress on Friday when they decide whether to keep Mike Johnson in the powerful position of House Speaker.
An early afternoon leadership vote could be an early indicator of the party's ability to hold together as it works to advance Trump's agenda of tax cuts and border enforcement through Congress. It could also serve as a test of Trump's influence on Capitol Hill, where a handful of Republicans have already signaled a willingness to challenge him.
House Republicans have been plagued by internal divisions over the past two years. Johnson was promoted to speaker after the party ousted his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, midway through his term. With a slim majority of 219 to 215, Johnson can afford to lose only a few votes if he wants to retain office.
Before the vote, Johnson said he would not make concessions to win over the naysayers.
“I don't make deals with anyone. There is no quid pro quo here,” he told reporters. “I don't do anything in exchange for a vote, other than a commitment to making this institution work as effectively and efficiently as possible.”
Trump sought to set the stage for a smooth ride when he endorsed Johnson on Monday after weeks of uncertainty.
“A win for Mike today would be a huge win for the Republican Party,” Trump wrote online on Friday.
Maverick Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, a constant troublemaker for his party's leaders, pledged to vote against Johnson and said he believed many others would join him. “I think there will be one or two here very soon,” he told Reuters.
If Massey's predictions are true, this will leave Johnson without the votes needed to remain in office. Many other party members expressed timidity about whether they would support him.
So far, no other Republican has publicly hinted at challenging Johnson for the role.
Narrow margin
More than one vote against Johnson, or several Republican abstentions in the form of “present” votes, would be enough to prevent Johnson's re-election if all Democrats vote for their leader, Hakeem Jeffries, as they are expected to do.
If Johnson doesn't win the election on the first vote, he can try again, as the House went through 15 rounds of voting over four days in 2023 before McCarthy was elected speaker.
Whoever gets the position of Speaker of Parliament – the second in line to the presidency after the Vice President – will have a big task ahead of them. In addition to dealing with Trump's sweeping legislative agenda, Congress will need to address the country's debt ceiling later this year.
With the federal government's debt already exceeding $36 trillion, many Republicans in Congress are expected to demand deep spending cuts.
Republicans will also be sworn in to their new 53-47 Senate majority on Friday, and Sen. John Thune will be their new leader, succeeding long-serving Sen. Mitch McConnell, who is stepping down from the leadership but remains in office.
Johnson has angered some conservatives by repeatedly turning to Democrats to provide votes to pass important legislation, such as bills to keep government agencies running. He also faced a last-minute challenge late last month when Trump asked House Republicans to cancel the government funding deal, also demanding that they raise the nation's debt ceiling.
A revised version of this bill – not including Trump's debt ceiling request – passed the House of Representatives a few hours before the government shutdown, and received more support from Democrats than from Republicans.
Other Republicans – trying to don the mantle of defending Trump's agenda for a second term – have made demands in exchange for their support.
Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz this week issued a wish list of fiscal structural constraints in the coming year, opening the door for Johnson to win it.
Another element working in Johnson's favor to remain a speaker is the calendar.
Congress is scheduled to meet on Monday to certify Trump's victory in the presidential election, a task he will not be able to do without a president.
Johnson is also looking to make his way over the next two years easier, by changing the rule approved by McCarthy that allows any House member to call for the speaker's removal through what is known as a “motion to vacate.” The rules proposed by Johnson would require the approval of a nine-member majority before imposing the type of vote that led to McCarthy's ouster.
