The Trump plan will not occur, but it will have consequences

The plan, as Donald Trump expressed, will not happen. It requires the cooperation of the Arab countries that rejected it.

It includes Jordan and Egypt, the countries that Trump wants to take by the Palestinians in Gaza – and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is expected to put the bill.

Western allies from the United States and Israel against the idea.

Some Palestinians – perhaps many – may be seduced by the Palestinians in Gaza if they have the opportunity.

But even if a million leaves, nearly 1.5 million people will remain there.

It is assumed that the United States – the new owners of the “Riviera Middle East” will have to use force to remove it.

After the catastrophic America intervened in Iraq in 2003, this will be deeply inverted in the United States.

The final end of any hope will remain in the two -state solution. This is the ambition in which the conflict that is more than a century life can end through the creation of an independent Palestine alongside Israel.

The Netanyahu government is inconsistent with the idea, and over the years of failed peace talks, two “states of two peoples” have become an empty slogan.

But it was a central foreign policy plate since the early 1990s.

Trump's plan also violates international law.

The assurances of the American threads already that believe in an international matter based on the bases will melt. Russian regional ambitions in Ukraine and China in Taiwan will be a turbocharged shipment.

Why do you worry about all of this, if it is not about to happen, at least is not the way Donald Trump announced in Washington, watched by a wide smile and the pleasure of Benjamin Netanyahu?

The answer is that Donald Trump's comments, no matter how strange, will have consequences.

He is the President of the United States, the most powerful man in the world – he is no longer a realistic TV host and an attempt to political hope for newspapers.

In the short term, the disturbance caused by its amazing declaration can weaken the fragile ceasefire in Gaza. One of the higher Arab sources told me that it could be the “death of death.”

The absence of a plan for Gaza's future governance is already a mistake in the agreement.

Now Trump came one, and even if it is not passed, it presses very large buttons in the minds of the Palestinians and the Israelis.

The plans and dreams of extremist Jewish extremists who believe that all the lands between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, and maybe behind them are a Jewish possession that God has given.

They led them part of the government of Benjamin Netanyahu and maintain it in power, and they are happy. They want the Gaza war to resume the longest -term goal of removing the Palestinians and replacing them with Jews.

Finance Minister Paisalel Sotrich said that Trump provided the answer to the future of Gaza after the October attacks.

“Everyone who commits the most terrifying massacre on our land will find himself losing his land forever. Now we will spend in the end, with the help of God, the dangerous idea of ​​the Palestinian state.”

The leaders of the middle opposition in Israel were less effective, and perhaps they were afraid of the troubles in the future, but they made a polite welcome in this plan.

Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups may feel the need to respond to Donald Trump with a kind of force against Israel.

For the Palestinians, the conflict with Israel is driven by commitment and the memory of what they call the cabinet, the “catastrophe”. This was the exit of the Palestinians as Israel won its war for independence in 1948.

More than 700,000 Palestinians have escaped or forced from their homes by the Israeli forces. It is absolutely not allowed to return to laws, and Israel is issued laws that are still used to confiscate their property.

Now fear will be that it happens again.

Many Palestinians already believe that Israel was using the war against Hamas to destroy Gaza and expel the population.

It is part of their accusation that Israel is committing genocide – and now they may believe that Donald Trump adds his weight to Israel's plans.

Just because Trump says something that does not make it real or certain.

His statements are often similar to the opening of Gambia in real estate negotiations than the United States' stable policy expressions.

Perhaps, Trump publishes some ambiguity while working on another plan. He is said to look forward to the Nobel Peace Prize.

Peace makers in the Middle East, even when they do not succeed in the end, have a strong record to win it.

Since the world was digesting his declaration in Gaza, he posted on the platform of social truth his desire for a “verified nuclear peace agreement” with Iran.

The Iranian regime denies that it wanted nuclear weapons, but there was an open debate in Tehran about whether they are so threatened that they need the final deterrent.

For many years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to destroy the United States, with Israeli assistance, Iranian nuclear sites. A deal with Iran was not part of his plan.

During Trump's first term, Netanyahu launched a long and successful campaign to persuade him to get the United States out of the management of the nuclear deal with Iran.

If Trump wants to throw the Israeli, it has succeeded in their families because he is making initiatives for the Iranians, so he succeeded.

But he also created uncertainty and inject more instability in the world's most turbulent region.