Arne Sloat's Liverpool have been the dominant force in the Premier League in the 2024/25 season, but history suggests there is hope for their main rivals.
A 6-3 win over Tottenham It means the Reds sit at the top of the Premier League table at Christmas for the seventh time. Only once did they manage to win the title. While Manchester City are not currently in a position to compete again, these statistics will no doubt raise some eyebrows in north and west London.
While Liverpool convert Christmas additions into titles at a poultry rate of 16.6%, 16 out of 32 Christmas table toppers have been converted. However, the numbers show that the Reds' current position, while strong, is not inevitable come May 2025.
Much of the talk at this time of year surrounds the potential title winners, and City's demise adds further uncertainty in 2024. However, this Premier League has proven to be a rather strange one, and fascinating stories are emerging from up and down the table.
As it stands, we are looking at a couple of surprise European arrivals, perhaps even a continental debut, and a mid-table indifference to the members of the so-called 'Big Six'. The unpredictability is dissipating towards the relegation zone as the newly promoted side struggles to compete, but the Wolves' struggles could ensure there are relegation stories to digest down the stretch.
Here's how Opta supercomputer The final 2024/25 Premier League table is set to be shown on Christmas Day.
|
position |
a team |
Probability of finishing mode(%) |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
86.0 |
|
2. |
Arsenal |
54.0 |
|
3. |
Chelsea |
43.6 |
|
4. |
Man City |
43.9 |
|
5. |
Aston Villa |
16.9 |
|
6. |
Newcastle |
14.9 |
|
7. |
Nottingham Forest |
13.1 |
|
8. |
Bournemouth |
13.4 |
|
9. |
Tottenham |
12.1 |
|
10. |
Man United |
12.7 |
|
11. |
Brighton |
12.3 |
|
12. |
Fulham |
12.6 |
|
13. |
Brentford |
17.5 |
|
14. |
West Ham |
19.9 |
|
15. |
Crystal Palace |
23.9 |
|
16. |
Everton |
34.9 |
|
17. |
Wolves |
30.8 |
|
18. |
Leicester |
31.6 |
|
19. |
Ipswich |
37.7 |
|
20. |
Southampton |
77.0 |
Opta is convinced by Liverpool. They give the Reds an 86% chance of winning second place Premier League title after they extended their advantage over second-placed Chelsea to four points at the weekend. They are six points better than Arsenal, who Opta rates as Liverpool's biggest threat, having also played a game less than their London rivals.
The Gunners are currently in third place but have a much better chance of winning the league than Enzo Maresca's Blues. Opta gives Arsenal Shot 10.3% and Chelsea Just a 3.1% chance.
Perpetual champions Manchester City They sit seventh at Christmas and without any hope of winning a fifth successive title. However, Opta has not completely abandoned Pep Guardiola's side. They are the only team other than the one mentioned that has more than a 0.01% chance of winning the title (0.6%).
The supercomputer is backing City in the recovery phase in the second half of the season and has disagreed with Michael Owen's assessment, made admirably long before their current dismal run, that City will not finish in the top four. Opta gives Guardiola's men a 43.9% chance of finishing fourth and a 76.4% chance of finishing in the top four.
Opta is more optimistic about Aston Villa and Newcastle than Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, but the latter duo can still finish the season with European football secured for next season. Forest are expected to finish seventh and Bournemouth eighth. The odds and winners of the domestic cup will decide whether eighth place is enough for the Cherries to enjoy their first ever taste of the continental championship.
Tottenham and Manchester United may finish in the top half, but both clubs will be bitterly disappointed with a ninth and tenth place finish respectively.
London dominate the top of the bottom half, while Everton look set for a year of relief above the relegation zone. Wolves sit 18th on Christmas Day, but Opta is backing new manager Vitor Pereira to guide the West Midlanders to safety. Wolves still have a 52.5% chance of relegation, but Leicester (62%), Ipswich (76.9%) and Southampton (97.8%) are all favored over Pereira's side. Saints, who have just appointed Ivan Juric as successor to Russell Martin, have moved up to the Championship. Opta gives them a 77% chance of finishing at the bottom of the pile when all is said and done.
