The stagnation in relationships is universal

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There is a reason why birth rates are an increasingly prominent feature in discourse and policy making today. Population aging and decline are among the most powerful forces in the world, shaping everything Economy to policy And the environment.

But the weakness of this debate — and perhaps even the term “birth rates” itself — is that it implies that the goal today is the same as it was in the past: to find ways to encourage couples to have more children. A closer look at the data suggests an entirely new challenge.

Take the United States as an example. Between 1960 and 1980, the average number Children born to women are halved About four to two, even with Women's share of married women Pairs declined only modestly. There are still many couples who have happy and stable relationships. They just choose to have smaller families.

But in recent years, most of the decline has not been the result of decisions made by couples, but from a marked decline in the number of couples. king Marriage and cohabitation rates in the United States If the total fertility rate in the United States had remained constant over the past decade, the total fertility rate in America would be higher today than it was then.

The central demographic story of the modern era is not only a decline in childbearing rates, but also a rise in singlehood: a more fundamental shift in the nature of modern societies.

Relationships are not only becoming less common, they are becoming increasingly fragile. In egalitarian Finland, it is now even more so Common among couples who move in together to separate Of having a child, which is a sharp reversal in the historical norm.

When this is portrayed as a rise in happy childless dinks (dual income, no child spouses) with lots of disposable income, the social trends accompanying declining birth rates appear benign.

But the rise of singlehood and relationship breakups is a less rosy story, especially considering that the decline in relationship formation is the steepest among The poorest. Of course, many people live happily single. The freedom to choose how one will spend one's life and who to celebrate with (or without). But broader data on Feeling lonely and Dating frustrations It indicates that all is not well.

The trend is global. From the United States, Finland, and South Korea to Türkiye, Tunisia, and Thailand, Low birth rates They are increasingly in the trend of relationship stagnation among young people. Child rewards Put the cart before the horse when an increasing percentage of people are without a partner. Even in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, similar trends may be underway.

Why this decline almost worldwide, and why now? The fact that this is happening almost everywhere simultaneously suggests broader changes operating across borders more than country-specific factors.

The spread of smartphones and social media was one such external shock. Geographical differences in the appearance of single people are widely traced Mobile Internet use, especially among women, His calculations weigh potential partners It changes. This is consistent with research Social media exposure facilitates the spread of liberal values ​​(especially among women) and promotes women's empowerment.

The decline in coupling was deepest in Europe, East Asia and Latin America, followed by the Middle East and then Africa. Single people are still rare in South Asia, where Internet access for women is More limited.

This does not mean overestimating the role of social media. Other cultural differences between countries and regions contribute to the spread of liberal ideals and the ability of people to act in accordance with them. Caste and honor systems encourage high rates of marriage, regardless of access to mediaFemale education, income and employment vary markedly between regions.

But while the specific mechanisms are up for debate, the prevalence of singlehood and its role in crushing birth rates shows that while financial incentives and other policy adjustments It could push birth rates higherThey are working against much stronger social and cultural forces.

Policies aimed at facilitating the formation of relationships may be more effective than those aimed at helping couples have children.

A world of up-and-coming singleness It's not necessarily better or worse than the one full of couples and families, but it's fundamentally different from what came before, with significant challenges. socialand economic political repercussions. We face a dilemma: Is this what people really want? If not, what needs to change?

john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch