Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Urban is looking at a press conference during the European Unoffer Union Summit in Boskas Square, in Budapest, Hungary, November 8, 2024.
Marton Monus Reuters
Analysts say that the so-called “strong man” in Europe-with most of them, is committed to the likes of US President Donald Trump and Russia Vladimir Putin-Hebdwan in an increasingly, as their popularity decreases before the main elections.
Trump's inauguration was expected to present a shot in the arm of leaders and national parties such as Hungary Victor Urban, Robert Fico Slovakia, the right -wing AFD party in Germany, Marin Le Pen and its National Party in France. But such support is not an excessive result, as local pressures and economic challenges raise their popularity and strength.
“It seems that the re -election of Donald Trump for a second term in the United States was like Clarion's call for a structural political transformation towards Maga style movements throughout Europe,” he said in the comments via e -mail on Thursday. Maga refers to “making America great again” – a slogan historically directed the Trump national campaign.
“In fact, what we see is a fairly mixed image throughout Europe, and in fact with many Trams on the back foot,” said.
The leaders of the “strong man” are no longer?
Hungary leaders and Slovakia – President Viktor Urban and Prime Minister Robert Fico – are often classified as a “strong man”, and President Putin, who has continued with them warm relations since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Although members of the European Union, both countries have declined against the mass initiatives to reduce relations with Moscow, such as reducing imports of Russian gas and oil. Instead, countries chose to maintain supplies amid fears of energy costs at home.
Both leaders were also critical of providing more military and financial assistance to Ukraine and threatened to refuse to support sanctions on Russia despite last Monday, Urban retracted this position after giving energy security assurances by the bloc.
In this total photo distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin (PBUH) shakes the Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico (L) before their talks in Moscow on December 22, 2024.
Jafri Gregorov AFP | Gety pictures
Orban and Fico sees popular classifications that diminish at home, and dissatisfaction with their leadership between the public and parliament. Urban's votes were decreased, while the classifications of his main political rival Peter Magear were raising. Meanwhile, Fico has narrowly avoided a vote of lack of confidence in January after its political opponents abandoned this step.
The two analysts say that both men may face defeat in the polling box in the short term, with parliamentary elections to be held next year in Hungary and in 2027 in Slovakia, although voting may happen earlier.
“The future of the Fico government is increasingly confirmed due to the slim parliamentary majority, which is more threatened by the differences between the ruling coalition parties as well as the Fico discourse and behavior increasingly,” he said in the comments via e -mail.
He added: “Fico himself stated the possibility of early parliamentary elections in the spring unless the coalition partners have resolved the internal differences.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Lynn, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Urban and European Council Chairman Charles Michel Boss after a press conference during the unofficial European Union Summit in Boskas Square, in Budapest, Hungary, November 8, 2024.
Marton Monus Reuters
Hungary Urban is exposed to increasing local pressure this year, with opposition leader Peter Magear and Tesza continues to rise, which indicates that the anti -European populist populist may lose 2026 elections.
The Eurasia Group indicated that the polling from November showed Tesza with the support of 35 % -45 % between the scheduled voters -about four to six percentage points before the Urban Fidan party.
“Hungary Prime Minister VikTor Orban will face his most important restriction since he took office in 2010 … This will undermine his ability to kidnap – let it alone – the European Union’s agenda as a prominent popular leader of the bloc,” analysts in political consultations of political dangers said in a memorandum in January.
The Eurasia Group said that Urban and Vids will likely continue to attack the CEO's credibility and can follow the financial mitigation that aims to enhance the support of the voter groups in Fidesz.
“However, this will happen against the background of the weak economy, the situation that the European Union exploits by blocking funds and increasing investor fears. These conditions also cause the European Union to pushing the disengagement similar to the United States,” they noticed.
A comfort for Brussels?
The populist parties throughout the European Union have gained great popularity over the past decade, with the rise of the AFD party in Germany and the National Rally in France – both, both of them, After the uninterrupted electoral successesNow it is practicing great influence on the political trends concerned with its national governments.
Euruschets and the anti -immigration feelings were largely fuel due to the general dissatisfaction of the European Union's response to the unconventional migration to the continent.
The joint press conference of European Commission President Ursula von der Lin, President of the European Council Antonio Costa and Hungary Prime Minister Victor Urban after the end of the European Council summit, the European Union leaders meeting at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels, Belgium on December 19, 2024.
Norfuto Norfuto Gety pictures
The upcoming elections in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic can see the anti -European populist parties to gain more reasons this year, but the anti -European governments will remain much lower than the minority required in the European Council to take the European Union decisions seriously, Eurasia noticed the group:
“Where they are in the government, they tend to turn towards the political center, with a remarkable exception of Hungary. Therefore, many of the far -right horizons depend on whether governments can find more effective ways to deal with the slow immigration crisis. This is the strongest driver to support populist in The European Union, “said analysts.
