The Great American Alcohol Debate

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Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is Contributing columnist, based in Chicago

“Happy alcoholic holiday.” A neon sign flashes in someone's window Many seasonal pop-up bars Which fills the streets surrounding Wrigley Field in Chicago. Pop-ups are doing a roaring trade as Chicagoans prepare to celebrate the major alcohol holiday, New Year's Eve.

They ring in what could be a momentous year in the great American debate about alcohol: Is it true? Alcohol does more to kill us or It keeps us alive? True believers on both sides are faced with what is planned New guidelines On alcohol consumption: Should Americans dramatically reduce their drinking? Or is a modest amount of alcohol healthier than not drinking at all?

Many younger Americans are already voting with their non-alcoholic beverages: The Pew Research Center found that the percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds who say they drink alcohol has declined by 10 points In the past two decades, from 72 to 62 percent.

And those who say alcohol is bad are increasingly winning the PR battle. Gallup It found that 45 percent of Americans believe they drink one or two drinks a day Current US guidelinesrespectively, for women and men – it was unhealthy. That's up 17 points since 2018. Among people aged 18 to 34, 65% say alcohol is bad for their health.

Overall, per capita pure alcohol consumption in the United States “fell to its lowest level since 2002, after peaking during the pandemic,” according to IWSR, a global beverage data provider. IWSR expects the non-alcoholic market in the United States to have compound annual growth Growth rate from 18 percent by volume between 2024 and 2028. “It's become the norm to have non-alcoholic beverages on the menu, and people who drink them no longer stick out like a sore thumb,” says Carrie May, founder of the nonprofit. Chicago AF, which promotes sober socialization.

This is perhaps less true around alcoholic holidays: When I tried to order a non-alcoholic drink at one of the pop-ups, I was offered a drink named after one of the children's characters — or hot chocolate.

Researchers acknowledge that many people decide how to drink based on personal experience rather than government guidelines that have rarely changed in decades. I'm a teetotaler now, but the guidelines are the same as when I moved to Washington, D.C., nearly 30 years ago — and brought back so much South African wine that I had to get a liquor license. I didn't wait for new guidelines to change my habits.

But recently, policymakers around the world have taken a tougher stance on alcohol. Two years ago, the World Health Organization He said No amount of alcohol was safe. Canada funded a study that found that “alcohol-related consequences” for drinkers or non-drinkers are more likely to be avoided only when Two drinks a week or less. However, Ottawa has not endorsed these guidelines and continues to publish them Much higher guidelines For “low-risk drinking”: three drinks each day For men, two for women.

Before alcohol recommendations are revised in the United States, proponents of “no amount is safe” confront those who say moderate drinking has health benefits. Two competing groups advise which government departments will choose the 2025-2030 directives.

One of those groups, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Found That the evidence was “imperfect” but still concluded with “moderate certainty” that moderate drinkers had lower all-cause mortality and a lower risk of cardiovascular death than those who never drank.

A separate panel is expected to issue its report soon – and lobbyists on both sides believe it may provide evidence supporting the sharply lower consumption guidance. The alcohol industry is already lobbying against this. “If you ignore the science and tell consumers that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption, you risk them ignoring the guidelines altogether,” Amanda Berger of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States told me.

Significantly reduced consumption guidelines may face political backlash as well. Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz last year criticized rumors of new borders, posting on X: “What's up with liberals who want to control every aspect of your life? “If they want us to drink two beers a week, frankly, they can kiss my ass.”

Back in Wrigleyville, the neighborhood cannabis dispensary now has a long waiting list. Americans may be drinking less, but Gallup found twice as many adults in the United States Smoke marijuana Than it was in 2013. If it's not booze, it could be dope.

However, we shouldn't worry about what the government thinks is best for us on New Year's Eve. There will be plenty of time for that in Dry January.