Two days before the devastating fires tore through Los Angeles, Hollywood was in a festive mood as Demi Moore, Zendaya and Timothée Chalamet walked the red carpet outside the Golden Globe Awards.
At the glitzy parties that followed, there was enthusiastic talk about Najah evil and other recent hits — and whether they might herald the end of Hollywood's deep recession marked by studio budget cuts, writer and actor strikes, and box office declines.
A week later, Los Angeles' most famous industry was shocked and uncertain again about its prospects for recovery. “I don't think anyone knows what the next step is,” said one executive at a major movie studio. “This city is going through a lot of trauma.”
Studios in HollywoodSony, Disney, and Warner Brothers were not damaged by the fires, but they have stopped filming many productions since Wind fires It began to spread in densely populated neighborhoods.
At the Sony Collection in Culver City, new episodes of long-running games are on display risk and Wheel of fortune It has been suspended. NBCUniversal last week postponed filming on several TV shows, including the Golden Globe-winning comedy HacksBut he resumed filming this week. Other studios say they are monitoring the fires and expect them to be up and running soon.
Preparations for the Oscars, Hollywood's biggest night, were also affected by the fires. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has twice extended the voting period for Oscar nominations, which are scheduled to air March 2, to give members more time to consider their options. The Academy has taken the additional step of canceling a star-studded luncheon for nominees that had been scheduled for next month.
Executives believe these fire-related outages will be temporary, but there are long-term concerns that Hollywood is losing its appeal as a place to produce movies and TV shows. Los Angeles, once a world leader in production, has seen other US states, along with Canada and the United Kingdom, use tax incentives to move businesses away from California.
The result has been sharp declines in film and television production in Southern California over the past five years, said Philip Sokoloski, spokesman for FilmLA, the group that grants production permits in Los Angeles.
He said the number of products in Los Angeles has declined by double digits in every category his company tracks over the past five years. He added: “In some cases, the percentage reaches 50 percent.”
California Governor Gavin Newsom will try to revive the state's film industry this year — even as he also commits billions of dollars to help Los Angeles recover from the coronavirus crisis. Fires. He plans to introduce a $750 million annual tax incentive plan for the industry in the next session of the state Legislature, more than double the current level.
The aim is to entice productions that have moved to Georgia, Louisiana, New York and other US states, with more generous incentives – and to try to avoid defections to Canada and the UK. If approved, the stimulus package will take effect in July.
At stake is an industry that generates nearly $45 billion in profits each year in California. At the height of the broadcast bubble, Los Angeles employed 149,500 people in the motion picture and sound recording industries, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. By 2023, when strikes nearly halted production, the number had fallen to 108,740.
The rebound that many in the industry expected last year did not materialize after the strike, with filming at times falling below levels seen during worker strikes. Reality TV shows, usually a reliable employer during lean periods, have dried up. Stories have circulated of workers in Hollywood being forced to sell their homes, become Uber drivers, or leave the industry altogether. The phrase “survive until 2025” has become a slogan for struggling actors, directors, and writers.
“Then 2025 comes along, and a hellscape is unleashed,” said Tom Noonan, an Oscar-winning producer and professor of film at UCLA. “I don't think the fires will really change the direction of the industry, but it's definitely a turning point for people (to consider leaving L.A.). People are sick and tired of waiting for studios to give them work.”
The fear is that Los Angeles' 100-year-old ecosystem of writers, actors, producers, crew and agents may start to fade away.
“When you look at people who have strong careers here who are considering moving out of state to chase work or pursue a whole new line of work, it says something about the faith and trust that people have in this area,” FilmLA's Sokoloski said.
“When people start thinking about the possibility of making their careers elsewhere, it is definitely not in our favour,” he added.
Hollywood welcomed Newsom's proposal, although some warned that it would not be a silver bullet. British Columbia raised its tax breaks on January 1, with additional incentives for productions exceeding $200 million. Credits, combined with a weak Canadian dollar and its strong production infrastructure, make Canada an attractive alternative to California, Los Angeles-based Entertainment Partners said in a December report.
The group also noted that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canada could hurt U.S. film and television production.
For now, the focus in Los Angeles is on helping with rescue and rebuilding efforts. Hollywood studios donated millions of dollars to emergency response and rebuilding efforts, and actors, including Jamie Lee Curtis, led fundraisers for those displaced by the fires.
But rebuilding confidence in Hollywood's status as the home of the world's “dream factories” will also take a lot of work. “I've been in this field since 1984, and I've never experienced such a long period of despair,” Noonan said. “It started with Covid, then the streaming wars, then the strikes, and now this.”
But the 62-year-old Hollywood veteran added: “I'm not ready to quit. I'm not ready to give up.”
