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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
“In the first term everyone was fighting me,” Donald Trump said before Christmas. “This semester, everyone wants to be my friend.” He has a point. Eight years ago, Trump faced an angry protest movement that swept Washington and resisted his short-lived “Muslim ban” in the days after his inauguration. This time there's barely a peep. The mood of the opposition turned from anger to depression.
Democrats are a mess. And in 2017, they had Nancy Pelosi, the party's most formidable leader in decades. Pelosi's last significant act was helping force Joe Biden to step down last summer. But before that, she impeached Trump twice and maintained an iron grip on her party. This time, Democrats lack a strategy. The default position of cooperating with Trump where they can and opposing him where they must is a recipe for division. Without a leader, the party is drowning in Trump's sea.
Republicans will not act as a check. The most effective obstacle to Trump last time was John McCain, the late senator from Arizona. But for McCain, Trump would have repealed Obamacare. At the time, there was a large clique of Republicans in the Senate who could take on Trump. Of the seven who voted to convict Trump in early 2021, four have departed — Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Richard Burr of North Carolina, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. The other three — Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana — were not enough to topple their party's majority.
Today's Supreme Court looks like a MA in robes. In 2017, the court had a 5-4 conservative majority. But one Republican-appointed justice, Anthony Kennedy, often tended to side with liberals. With a 6-3 majority this time, the court looks more like a rubber stamp than a check on a rampant executive. Trump has already thrown down the gauntlet. On TikTok, ignore the bipartisan ban passed by Congress and upheld by the court last week. His defiance is reminiscent of Andrew Jackson, the seventh president of the United States, who told the chief justice: “Let him now enforce it” after the court blocked the seizure of Cherokee lands. Jackson won.
Trump has already started playing the Jackson card. In one of his executive orders on Monday, he strongly criticized the 14th Amendment, which grants automatic citizenship to anyone born on US soil. The ball is now in the court, so to speak. As is the case with TikTok. With whom will the justices be able to enforce a decision that Trump chose to ignore? The justices gave Trump carte blanche last summer when they ruled on presidential immunity for any “official act” — a category so vaguely defined that Trump can do whatever he likes.
Will Trump seek court permission, or Congressional permission, to occupy the Panama Canal? Although it may violate two treaties, the question answers itself. The media reported a similar defensive stance. In 2017, the Washington Post embodied this industry when it adopted the slogan “Democracy Dies in Darkness.” Last week, she added a mission statement, “Strengthening storytelling for all of America.” Its owner, Jeff Bezos, was among the wealthy people at Trump's inauguration. His company, Amazon Prime, is paying Melania Trump, the first lady, $40 million to help produce a documentary about herself. Consider me surprised if it pays off commercially.
So who will stand up to Trump? Allies are as resigned today as they were in Trump's first term. Then German Chancellor Angela Merkel was first in Europe among her counterparts. Today, Italian Giorgia Meloni, who also attended Trump's inauguration, is considered the continent's safest leader. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, like others, is doing his best to curry favor with Trump. Denmark's government may have been expecting some solidarity after Trump announced his desire to annex Greenland. But so far the protests have remained silent. If Trump can covet his ally's territory with impunity, it would seem that his only check is himself.
He is now at the peak of his power. But authority tends to slip. In 2026, Republicans may lose control of Congress, at which point Trump will become a lame duck. This, at least, is the story Democrats are invested in. But Trump's opponents should know that they will inherit a very different country if they take back the White House next time. Trump is reshaping America in his image. You can't step into the same river twice.
