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“No games, no tricks, no vandalism.” Herbert Kickl appeared to begin ransom negotiations rather than coalition talks last week after receiving the green light from the Austrian president to try to form a government three months after his victory in parliamentary elections.
The far-right leader undoubtedly has the whip hand in negotiations with the centre-right People's Party, whose coalition efforts collapsed earlier this month. Kickl threatened that any tampering would lead to new elections, and opinion polls indicate a landslide victory for his Freedom Party over the conservatives.
Kickle won't have everything his own way. The ÖVP insists it agrees to guarantees to protect press freedom, maintain a constructive relationship with the EU and continue support for Ukraine. But the center-right doesn't show much backbone. Last fall, Christian Stocker, the new leader of the Austrian People's Party, described Kickl's Freedom Party as “not only a threat to democracy, but an equally major threat to Austria's security.” After a few months, there is no such feeling of regret.
Austria is on track to choose its first right-wing chancellor since World War II. That would be a logical development for the country, as Kekel's party has already participated in three federal governments with the center right, although it has never been at the forefront. But it will still be a historic breakthrough for the Freedom Party of Austria, and it will have repercussions beyond Austria's borders.
It would characterize and encourage others Populist Nationalist movements in Europe. The far-right Alternative for Germany party often takes its ideological cues from its more established Austrian counterpart. Alice Weidel, the AfD's candidate for chancellor, recently embraced the concept of “remigration” — the mass deportation of immigrants deemed to have failed to integrate, regardless of their status as citizens. The idea was first taken up by the Austrian nationalist theorist Martin Sellner, then adopted by Kickl and his party and then by the extremist wing of the AfD. When it emerged that a group of AfD politicians and activists had attended a meeting with Sellner in November 2023 to discuss “reimmigration,” Weidel in effect disavowed them. Now she has made this policy her own.
Kickle This would bolster the growing band of Eurosceptic nationalist leaders in central Europe, who, led by Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, appear intent on challenging the EU's liberal establishment and its pro-Ukraine foreign policy. They could be joined by Andrej Babis, the billionaire who is on track to win parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic later this year. Nationalist Calin Georgescu could be elected president of Romania in a re-election after the country's Constitutional Court nullified his bid in December over what Romanian authorities claimed was a Russian-backed influence campaign. Central European troublemakers may not always act in unison, but they have become impossible to marginalize, let alone ignore.
Kickle The potential rise to power also highlights the fragility of Europe's political center at the beginning of 2025. Mainstream parties that are loathe to cooperate with the far-right or populist right are struggling to find common ground among themselves to govern effectively. Strained public finances only exacerbate the problem.
In Austria, Kickl was invited to form a government because the center-right could not agree with the center-left and liberals on how to reduce the huge public deficit. In France, the new minority government headed by François Bayrou is hanging by a thread, awaiting a budget agreement. Fundamental disagreements over debt rules first paralyzed and then imploded Germany's “traffic light” coalition, pushing the AfD to new heights.
The firewall erected by the main German parties against sharing power with the far right remains intact – for now. But their ability to work together in the office will be sorely tested. The Christian Democrats, who have shifted noticeably to the right under Friedrich Merz, are expected to win, but will have to join forces with either the Social Democrats or the Greens, and perhaps both, to form a coalition. However, some of Merz's allies are intent on discrediting the Green Party.
“Austria is an example of how things should not be,” said Green Party chancellor candidate Robert Habeck. “If centrist parties are unable to form alliances and reject concessions as the work of the devil, it helps the extremists.”
If we do not show the willingness to form democratic coalitions, we face instability and inability to act. “Germany cannot afford it and we cannot expect Europe to accept it.”
Habeck is right. Compromise has become a dirty word in European politics. One that is sure to never pass Herbert Keckel's lips.
