The climate puzzle continues with the warm month of January

Scientists say that last month was the warmest January in the world raising more questions about the pace of climate change.

January 2025 was expected to be a little more cold than January 2024 due to the shift from the natural weather style known as the Nino.

But instead, last month broke a record in January 2024 by about 0.1 degrees Celsius, according to European climatic Copernicus service.

The world's temperature rises due to the emissions of gas heating the planet from human activities – especially burning fossil fuels – but scientists say they cannot clarify the reason that the last month is especially hot.

It continues in a series of large temperature records amazingly since mid -2013, with temperatures about 0.2 ° C above what was expected.

“The primary reason is that we are broken records, and we have this trend to warm decades, is that we increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the air,” Gavin Schmidt, director of the Godard Institute in NASA Studies, told the BBC News.

“Details of why were 2023 and 2024, and (start) 2025, is very warm, and there are other elements involved there. We are trying to install these.”

January 2025 ended with a warmer 1.75C than January's temperatures in the late nineteenth century, before humans began to warm greatly from the climate.

Early last year, global temperatures were strengthened before Natural weather styleAs the warm surface water is unusually spread across the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This releases the additional heat in the air, raising global temperatures.

This year, the conditions of La Niña are evolving instead, according to the American NOAA Group for American Sciences, which must have an opposite effect.

While La Niña is currently weak – and sometimes it takes two months to have a full effect on temperatures – he was expected to lead to the cold of January.

“If you asked me a few months ago what will appear to be January 2025 for January 2024, my best will be cooler,” said Adam Skyev, head of the monthly prediction at Met Office. .

“We now know that it is not, and we really don't know why.”

A number of theories have been put forward for the reason that the past two years were warmer than expected.

One ideas includes a long response to the ocean to the phenomenon of Nenio 2023-24.

Although she was not particularly strong, she followed that La LANINA stage is unusually long from 2020-23.

Consequently, the event may be “raising the cover” on warming, allowing the heat of the ocean that was accumulating to escape to the atmosphere.

But it is unclear how this will continue to affect global temperatures Almost a year after the end of Nineu.

“Based on historical data, this effect is likely to have faded now, so I think that if the current record continues, this interpretation becomes less likely.”

The fact that sea temperatures in other regions of the world are still particularly warm can indicate that “ocean behavior changes”, according to Samantha Burgis, Vice Director of Copernicus.

“We are really looking to find out how the ocean temperatures develop because it has a direct impact on air temperature.”

Another prominent theory is a decrease in the number of small molecules in the atmosphere, known as aerosols.

These small particles have organized some long -term warming of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane by helping to form bright clouds and reflect some sun energy into space.

Aerosol numbers recently decreased, thanks to the cuts in small particles of Chinese shipping and industry, for example, aimed at cleaning the air that people breathe.

But this means that they had no significant cooling effect to compensate for constant warming caused by greenhouse gases.

James Hansen, the scientist who carried out the first high -level warning about climate change to the US Senate in 1988, says the effect of this atmosphere was reduced by the United Nations.

Most scholars are not convinced after this is the case. However, if this is true, it may mean that there is a climate change in the store than it was previously assumed.

Professor SCAIFE says that the “nightmare scenario” will be additional cloud reactions, as the warm ocean can dispel low -level reflective clouds, in turn available to the planet.

This theory is also very unconfirmed. But the coming months should help throw some light if the “additional” warmth over the past two years is BLIP, or is an acceleration in warming up exceeding what scientists expect.

Currently, most researchers still expect 2025 to end a little coldly from 2023 and 2024 – but the last warmth means that they cannot confirm.

However, what they know is that the additional records will soon be followed or later as humanity continues to heat the planet.

“In time, 2025 is likely to be one of the cooler years we test,” said Dr. Burgis.

“Unless we turn off this tap to emissions (greenhouse gases), global temperatures will continue to rise.”

Graphics written by Erwan Revolt