The aviation industry is bracing for another year of turmoil, with Boeing Co. delivery delays and supply chain problems expected to continue into 2025, aviation consultants say.
Sunday marked one year since a door panel on a Boeing 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines blew off, an event that sparked a firestorm of questions about Boeing's quality and safety standards.
since then, The company made a series of changesincluding mandatory training of the workforce and increased inspections, according to A The company's statement was published on Friday. Boeing also said it has improved its “Speak Up” system to encourage employees to report concerns in the workplace.
That's not enough, said Mike Boyd, president and co-founder of aviation consulting firm Boyd Group International.Squawk Asia Fund” Monday.
He added: “The entire board of directors should have been dismissed.” “The new CEO and the new people say they are doing something, but this is a deep problem.”
Without plane deliveries from Boeing, airlines like Southwest, Wizz Air and Ryanair are spending money they “didn't want to spend on repairs for planes that were going to be retired,” Boyd said.
“Fasten your seat belt. Next year will be full of bumps,” he said.
“Boeing will lose a lot of ground to our friends at Airbus. There's no doubt about that,” he said, adding that the company may become a “secondary player” to Airbus in the future.
US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on Monday that Boeing has “a lot” of work to do, according to Reuters.
“Cultural change at Boeing is a real work in progress,” he said. “The only way to fully evaluate it is to see that they can continually improve results.”
John Grant, senior analyst at aviation information company OAG, said tangible improvements at Boeing are unlikely to come before the end of 2025, at the earliest.
“With regulators creeping in throughout the company and creating new processes, it may be too early to say things are getting better,” he said. “The good news is that things haven't gotten worse operationally.”
“Finances and labor relations are another issue,” he added.
Boeing has not made an annual profit since 2018. The company suffered another production setback after its mechanics started… The strike lasted seven weeks and ended in November With workers receiving an additional 38% pay increase.
A Boeing spokesperson told CNBC that the company is focused on stabilizing the business and implementing its plans.Safety and quality planThe spokesman highlighted dozens of actions Boeing has taken in 2024, from leadership changes on its board and the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems to expanding its site in South Carolina to increase production of its 787 aircraft.
Further than Boeing
Brendan Sobey, an independent analyst at Sobey Aviation, said the problems in the airline industry extend beyond Boeing.
From parts shortages to engine maintenance, “it's about the entire ecosystem of companies that exist in the industry,” he said.
“It's been a very difficult time, and there's no real sign of this ending anytime soon,” he added. “These are problems that will take years — not just one year — to solve.”
Sobey said airlines are particularly frustrated by reliability and maintenance problems at engine makers Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce.
As for the issues facing Pratt & Whitney, he offered a glimmer of positivity to the industry: “It's probably past its worst.”
What does this mean for travelers
Engine problems are forcing several airlines, including Hawaiian Airlines and Spirit Airlines, to ground portions of their fleets, Boyd said.
“The engines aren't there,” he said. “Wizz Air in the EU only 40 planes grounded For the year.”
He said that would make it harder to find airfare deals in 2025. “If you're looking for some really cheaper prices, I don't think even Mr O'Leary at Ryanair can promise that,” he said, referring to Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary. .
Scott Keyes, founder of the air travel site Going, said airfare prices will likely rise in 2025. In a post dated December 30, Keys said shown How flying costs to, from, and within the United States have changed since the COVID-19 pandemic.
- 2020: -17%
- 2021: -4%
- 2022: +36%
- 2023: -12%
- 2024: +5%
However, Sobey said capacity issues caused by grounded flights may be offset by an increase in flights, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where the industry is still recovering from the Covid pandemic.
He said Airline prices are normalizing at a level above pre-Covid prices but below 2022 peak levels – however, cost and supply chain issues are not. He added that this year may bring some improvement, but “in general, these challenges still exist.”
