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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world
Donald Trump launched the first shots while threatening to become a devastating trade war. The US President's tariff for Mexico, Canada and China will make an immediate shock to the economies in North America and the world. They offer contracts of progress towards economic integration that has strengthened us and global prosperity. One of the absurdity is that these measures are completely unjustified in terms of trade; It is used as a forced tool to increase Trump's local political agenda and extract concessions from American neighbors who may be out of their power to present it. Another is that the United States will be one of the main victims – in the harm caused by its economy and its situation in the world.
The returning US President described fake explanations different from his love for definitions. They will, he says, will restore the American industrial base, and they replace the income tax and pay the American debt. The apparent motivation of his definitions this week is instead curbing “the great threat to illegal foreigners and deadly drugs” including fentanel. TrumpIt was the threat of sanctions, correct, in steps from Canada and Mexico to Enhancing their borders. But there is no doubt that this would continue if the president chose to keep his hand. There are practical limits for what they can do – especially Canada, the source of only a small part of irregular or fentian migration that crosses from Mexico.
The legal peak of Trump's step is also doubtful. Benefit from the Economic Forces Law in international emergency situations, an executive authority that enables it to respond to extraordinary economic or security threats. However, this law has not been used before to age the definitions. The courts and Congress should be prevented.
If they do not do that, then the damage It will be severe. Trump's tariff will quickly feed on inflation in the United States and reduce growth. the Justification The effects will be amplified. Trump seems to be a gambling that since his measures will strike Canada and Mexico more difficult, given their greatest dependence on trade than America, they will quickly. But the American president not only challenges the commercial basis for their prosperity, but also raises their pride as sovereign countries.
The disclosure of free trade and supply chains in North America, which is raised for decades, will deal with both American consumers and American companies – especially oil refining, cars, pharmaceutical and agriculture. Trump's actions in China are less dramatic but seem to be a modest driving on more comprehensive plans. Together, the three countries represent nearly half of the United States' imports. Certainly 100 billion dollars in additional tariff duties will stunt the economic cost.
The harm to the American diplomatic authority is not less deep. Since the eighties of the last century, both Canada and Mexico have allocated decades of doubts to prove a strategic bet on free trade with the United States, which reached its climax in the 1994 NAFTA deal. Both were coercive by Trump in his first term to re -negotiate this deal. The president is now riding raw even on the revised deal, USMCA, sends a message that cannot be trusted. Canada and Mexico should not leave Trump's movements without an answer, but their response should be creative, coordinated and selective. Chrystia Freeland, former Finance Minister of Canada, has suggested that Justin Trudeau replace Prime Minister, a tariff that would affect the main electoral districts that support the US President, such as Elon Musk Tesla cars.
However, the trade war is a symptom of a greater issue in America Trump. The president alone decides important issues, exaggerates the diagnosis, and chooses medicine. As with his attempts to impose his own priorities Federal workers' launch and FreezingThe tools are often explicit. Its commercial war threatens to be disastrous, but chaos will not end there.
