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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world
Donald Trump's tariff of 25 percent Canada and Mexico exportsAlong with 10 percent customs tariffs on China, changing the world. This is true, although the customs tariff for the two countries were Temporarily. We know that, under this president, the United States only recognizes its narrow interests as legitimacy. This makes it bad. However, the worst of that, her view of her interests is crazy. This combination makes it a dangerous partner for other confidence countries.
From Trump's point of view, running a trade surplus with another country is “RoaghThis, of course, is the opposite of the truth: such a country provides a greater value for goods and services to US agents than it receives. The world's backbone. There is a way to reduce the trade deficit in the United States. Trump is a designer To keep the dollar reserve. Ironically, then, he wants the dollar to be weak and strong.
Trump's naive focus on bilateral balances instead of the total balance (unlike old trading) silly. But it is a reality. Therefore, the threat of rupture is used The United States Convention -Mexico -Canada He concluded in his first term to impose punitive definitions. Surprisingly, this customs tariff is much higher in Canada, where the United States has the longest not preserved borders in the world, from China, its declared enemy. However, we now know that being a close ally will not affect Trump. Like any bullying, it will take those who consider it weak. It may not end there. It looks like Vladimir Putin on Ukraine, and he has indicated He wants to include Canada. This is a sick joke. Why the Canadians are far away High average life and low killingsDo you want to become Americans?
While Trump plays his games, we must ask what are the effects of these definitions? analysis By Warwick J Mckibbin and Marcus Noland for the Peterson Institute of International Economy, it concludes that 25 percent of the customs tariffs on Canada, Mexico and 10 percent of the customs tariffs on China, which the latter produces, will harm all four countries. But they will harm Canada and Mexico more than the United States, which reduces GDP in Canada by more than one percentage point for what it was. Will this be enough to persuade Canada to abandon its independence? no. At the same time, according to Kimberly Clating and Mary is beautiful from B.“Trump's tariff will cost the model American family more than $ 1,200 a year.”
Trump claims that Canada is a major source of fentanel. However, according to a recent story in New York Times“The quantities of fentianils leave Canada to the United States. 0.2 percent of what was seized on the southern American border.” Instead of bullying in Canada, the United States may ask itself why many Americans are addicted.
Douglas Irwin It puts these definitions in a broader historical context in a note, as published by the Peterson Institute. If these definitions are performed, it will increase the average tariff on total imports from 2.4 percent to 10.5 percent, an increase of 8.1 percent. It will also increase the average customs tariffs on capacity from 7.4 percent to 17.3 percent, an increase of 9.9 percentage points. This would bring us a customs tariff to the levels that we have not seen since the early fifties. It can follow more.
The decisive objection of what Trump is doing is the uncertainty he creates. Canada and Mexico's decisions to enter the free trade agreement with the United States, just as other countries chose to open their economies in the public agreement on definitions, trade and the World Trade Organization, to stabilize politics. This is important for countries, especially those small, and vitality for companies that are betting on relying on foreign markets and integration in complex supply chains. Even not full threats. We are inconsistent with an unreliable partner: it's simple.
It was not always. Before Trump was killed World Trade Organization Settlement conflict A mechanism in 2019, the two countries were used to bring issues against the United States and win them. The rules governed were not imagination. But now – thanks to Trump.
Economy is at the heart of Trump's ill -treatment of tariff weapons. But it is more than just an economy. The inability to predict the United States affect every aspect of its international relations. No one can count on it, whether they are a friend or an enemy. Therefore, no one can make plans based on reliable assumptions on how they behave in the future. Some allies may decide that although they prefer the United States, China is at least predictable. This will be a crazy position for these countries. But it will be almost inevitable for the Trump gang approach to international relations.
For the closest allies, like the UK, the situation is particularly dark. The alliance with the United States has been the basis for its security since 1941. Could this be supposed to remain the case? What are alternatives? Is there, on a broader scale, the idea of a stable and committed Western alliance?
Meanwhile, what does Trump victims do? Chrystia Freeland, former Finance Minister of Canada, indicates that Ottawa must The threat of 100 percent of the customs tariffs on Tesla. But as Tim LyongeThe British economist, notes, Trump is not interested in Tesla. Instead, Canada must threaten taxes on oil and electricity exports. If the United States threatens friends, the latter must stand before them. This is how to deal with infiltrators.
