ReutersSyrian refugees have been celebrating the fall of Bashar al-Assad in the streets of Turkish cities, welcoming the sudden collapse of his regime, and many are now considering whether they should return home.
Thousands of Syrians flocked to Türkiye's border with Syria, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the opening of a border gate “to prevent any congestion and facilitate traffic.”
But nearly three million Syrians currently live in Turkey, having fled their country's civil war since it began in 2011, and they will face a difficult decision about what to do next.
“There is still no water in many areas of Syria, and electricity only comes at certain times of the day,” says Ibrahim. “It is not even clear who will rule the country and how, but we need to go back and get Syria back on its feet again.” He is a chemical engineer and has lived for 12 years in Hatay Province, located on the border with Syria.
Despite all the risks, he is among the Syrian refugees who plan to return as soon as possible, even though they will have to restart their lives from scratch.
Many Turks are also keen for the Syrians to return as soon as possible, and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Türkiye would work for their “safe and voluntary return to their homeland.”
Columnist Mehmet Tezcan expressed the opinion of many here when he pointed out that there was no reason for them to stay.
Life for Syrians in Türkiye has become increasingly difficult in the past two years, as Turks face an economic crisis with rising inflation.
Anti-immigrant sentiment has increased in society, and Erdogan's government has tightened its immigration policies.
Türkiye has long tried to talk to the ousted Assad regime about returning refugees to their homeland.
But most Syrians in Türkiye will want to wait and see how the turbulent months ahead play out before making such a big decision.
Migration expert Professor Murat Erdogan warned: “There will be some movement, but I do not expect millions of people to leave all at once, as everyone thinks.”
He adds that if this does not happen, “a new atmosphere of tension may arise.”
ReutersMetin Corabatir, head of the Center for Asylum and Migration Research, expects the “gradual return” to take place within a year at best, provided that the necessary preparations are made.
He told the BBC: “There are still risks in Syria in terms of security and daily life. An internationally recognized government must take power in Damascus.”
Ibrahim agrees that many refugees will have nothing left to return to in their homes: “In some areas there are no longer homes or schools. Even big cities like Aleppo are in a bad situation.”
“But this country has emerged from a 13-year war and we cannot wait until everything is ready for us. As Syrian people, we will try to rebuild everything little by little.”
In other words, Ibrahim says that the identity of the next Syrian government is less important than the return of Syrians to their homes to influence their future.
He says: “Whoever comes will be better than Assad.” He asked, “If we do not return, who will go to the elections and who will decide how the country will be governed?”
Metin Kurabatir points out that the large influx into Turkey initially came as Syrians fled the Assad regime from 2011 to 2013. The subsequent exodus came as Syrians fled the rise of ISIS and widespread political instability.
He says: “It is not easy to know how the groups that will come to power will behave, and it is natural for Syrians to expect to see that.”
“What kind of system will be created there? The team that came says: we are not jihadists, we will allow diversity – but only time will tell whether this is real or not.”
ReutersAll Syrians in Türkiye enjoy temporary protection status. The majority of them live in Istanbul and two border cities, Gaziantep and Sanliurfa.
Because many of them have been here for a long time, Syrian families have put down roots, sending their children to Turkish schools and universities.
Syrians here also live a dangerous life.
Many of them work without registration for salaries below the minimum wage, and often without insurance.
If they all return home at once, it could have a major impact on the Turkish economy.
Murat Erdogan warns that Turkey should not push Syrians to return to their homes all at once for the simple reason that there are big questions about infrastructure – the lack of schools, jobs and hospitals.
United Nations estimates indicate that 90% of the population inside Syria now lives below the poverty line.
“It could take hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild these devastated cities. Which country will provide the resources?” Mr. Erdogan says. “Extreme poverty and collapsing infrastructure in Syria are likely to persist for a long time. These are not problems that can be easily solved in the short term.”
Metin Kurabatir also warns of the danger of unexploded bombs and mines when refugees return home: “They also have to know in advance the condition of their homes in the destroyed cities.”
“We are talking about millions of people. The fact that they left their homes and arrived in Syria and settled there, all of this is greatly underestimated.”
He believes that the Turks should not view the Syrians living among them as a mass of people who will pack their bags and leave all at once.
