Manchester City's decline has been the story of the first half of the season, while Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal are still hoping to become the story of the second half by lifting the title. But what about two teams sandwiched between them all?
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are fourth and fifth respectively at Christmas, exceeding resources and expectations. What's most interesting about this is not only that they managed to do this, but also how They managed to do it.
One of the criticisms leveled at the Premier League in recent seasons has been a kind of traditional approach, which has undoubtedly been influenced by the success of Pep Guardiola. The game has skewed towards football as teams seek to gain possession of the ball.
It looks like 2024 was the year the culture wars reached football. Everyone should have known about Angie Postecoglou. Meanwhile, Vincent Kompany, a disciple of Guardiola, has been appointed head coach of Bayern Munich despite being relegated to Burnley.
And Russell Martin seems to see Southampton suffering the same fate as a price worth paying. “We have to believe in something.” He spoke not only of principles of play, but of values, attributing to them an almost moral element. Style is not a means but an end in itself.
Against this backdrop, the rise of Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth seems as timely as it is revealing. Because these are two of those small group of clubs whose coaches seem prepared to play a different kind of football than the rest of the clubs.
In an era of possession, only Sean Dyche's Everton side have seen as little football as Forest. Bournemouth are not far ahead of them in possession statistics. Both rank third in number of scrolling sequences of 10 or more.
While Manchester City and Southampton are separated from each other as the teams with the slowest – some would say most patient – builders, Nuno Espirito Santo's Forest and Andoni Airola's Bournemouth are the two most direct teams in the Premier League.
talking to Sky Sports About this in October, Iraola said: “The first thing we try to do when we get the ball back is to play to the No. 9, because that is the moment when the opponent is in a less good position and you can find better spaces.”
There's no need to wait for opponents to get back into shape for Iraola. His teams are progressing quickly, a vertical game as some like to call it. It can be devastating for the opposition and exciting for its supporters. Just ask those who have traveled to Manchester United.
Another interesting aspect of this is that while some of Forest and Bournemouth's numbers are similar, other aspects of their play are very different. They both move the ball up the pitch quickly, but they have different ways of controlling it.
Bournemouth win the ball high up the pitch and shoot the ball more than anyone else
Iraola's team is pressing high. “This season we are recovering a lot of balls high up the pitch.” They have shot on target as a result of high-pressure turnovers on 35 occasions already this season, more than any other team in the Premier League.
Nuno's side doesn't press high. In fact, Forest allow the opposition to advance the ball further up the pitch than any other team in the Premier League, another of these two teams being outliers. Competitors travel an average of 15.5 meters before being stopped.
Forest allow more passes per defensive action than any other team, and they are content for those possession teams to have the ball in areas where they can't hurt them. Nuno's plan is to eventually direct the ball into an area they can win, then strike quickly.
He is a natural pragmatist. Nuno said, speaking in 2024 Sky Sports: “It's not about possession one way or another. I can have a very good idea but do I think it will work? Do I have the personnel to execute what I think?”
When asked about the improvements he sought to implement in the team, he explained that he sought to make Forest more compact. “Our organization, when we go to win the ball back, the spacing between our players, we need to reduce those gaps even more.”
Irola sees it very differently. He wants to open up games, not stop them. “Most of the games we win are games that are more open, where there are more chances, where we can exploit one-on-ones on the outside and create more spaces.
He added: “The better the opponent is, the more risk you have to take if you want to put pressure on them. You know, people sometimes say: 'They are very good, so we have to wait a little longer to put pressure'. But that way you won't have any chance.” To get that ball back.”
There is a rare enthusiasm to Iraola's Bournemouth side, and they love turning contests into a running game, making the pitch big. Only Ipswich have covered more ground than the Cherries have so far this season. Only Tottenham has a higher average pace per match.
“We like to prioritize that kind of volume in our running because we feel that in very close games, where one small chance can make the difference, we are not very good.” forest? On the other hand, Nuno's team are the kings of a close football match.
No team has won as many matches as it has won by just one goal. No team has lost less than that. Keeping it tight is the mantra that is reflected in their running statistics. They are in the top three for the sprint races. Only Leicester City have played fewer games than them this season.
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Free viewing: Highlights of Nottingham Forest's win over Brentford
Two teams with contrasting styles but two teams with equally impressive results. The fact that they are doing it differently to anyone else in the Premier League is a cause for celebration, which flies in the face of the homogeneity of modern football.
The lesson we learned from David and Goliath is so ingrained in our culture that it could be included in the Old Testament. You cannot hope to overcome stronger opposition by doing the same thing they do. The success of Nuno and Iraola is new testimony to that old truism.
