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Many before and after polls were conducted Presidential elections 2024 It showed that one of voters' top concerns was the state of the economy. This was especially the case among voters who cast their ballots for Donald Trump.
This phenomenon has puzzled countless supporters of the Biden-Harris administration, who have insisted for years that the United States has a thriving economy under Joe Biden's leadership.
As evidence of this, the White House and an endless list of left-wing political pundits have often pointed to employment and unemployment numbers as evidence of… The economic success of the Biden-Harris administration.
President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris arrive to talk about the administration's cost-cutting efforts at Prince George's Community College in Largo, Maryland, August 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
But voters intuitively knew better. No number of headlines in the New York Times or enthusiastic rants on cable news shows will convince them that the American economy is going strong.
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Now Trump voters have the numbers to back up their doubts.
New report from Federal Reserve Bank The Philadelphia report shows that the Biden-Harris administration's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) overestimated employment in 25 states across the country in the second quarter of 2024. In contrast, the report found that preliminary employment numbers from the BLS were too high in two states only. . (The second quarter of 2024 is the most recent period for which the Philadelphia Fed has updated its data.)
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, its updated and expanded data reveals government payroll hiring in the second quarter. decreased By 0.1%, indicating a net loss of jobs during that period compared to the previous year.
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Preliminary employment data provided by the White House earlier this year indicated there were He increases In employment figures in the states during the same period. According to the Biden-Harris administration's original numbers, total state employment numbers showed a national employment increase of 1.8%. National survey data showed an increase of 1.1%.
Philadelphia Fed researchers believe both of these numbers are largely wrong.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believes Biden-Harris administrationPreviously reported employment figures fell by 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points, depending on which survey data is used. This may seem small, but when we apply it to the employment numbers for all 50 states, we are talking about an overestimation of national employment by as much as 3 million jobs.
How could the Biden-Harris administration be so backward?
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Although it is difficult to prove, it is reasonable to suspect that the White House may have rigged employment polls to make it appear as if the economy was in better shape.
The biggest reason to believe the White House could have been intentionally deceiving Americans is that past employment numbers are rarely revised to the point where the second-quarter 2024 numbers will be revised, according to other reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
For example, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Estimates Preliminary government employment data for the second quarter of 2023 differed by only 0.1 percentage point from more precise data reported later in the year.
In fact, I couldn't find a similarly flawed example in all of the Philadelphia Fed's other 2024 or 2023 reports on state employment data. The state employment numbers reported by the Biden-Harris administration in the second quarter of 2024 appeared to be lower than any other quarter in both years.
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However, I've detected a similar overstatement of employment estimates in some 2022 reports. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that 2022 is another important election year.
It is also worth noting that in the 2022 reports significant differences appear between the initial ones Employment numbers in the country The more accurate subsequent reports were, the more accurate the figures revealed much lower employment than previously thought. As I noted earlier, this was also the case in the Philadelphia Fed's most recent Q2 2024 report.
In other words, over the past three years, when the Biden-Harris administration has revised state employment numbers significantly, it has often revised them downward.
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Could it be a coincidence that these mistakes benefited the White House? Or is it possible that Biden-Harris administration Have people been deliberately deceived into believing that the employment rate is much higher than it actually is?
Only time and a congressional investigation will tell.
