Satellite images show Russia moving equipment into Syrian bases

Analysts say Russia is transferring a large amount of military equipment to Syria, indicating preparations for a partial withdrawal.

Satellite images revealed a concentration of military vehicles at a Russian-controlled port and air base in western Syria.

Transport planes also appear to have arrived and left the country in recent days.

BBC Verify has also identified geolocation videos showing vast columns of Russian military trucks moving north towards these bases.

The Institute for the Study of War notes that this indicates preparations for a reduction or complete withdrawal of Russian forces.

The Washington-based research institution added that transferring military vehicles to its bases may be a precautionary measure while Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus.

Russia had a significant military presence in Syria during Bashar al-Assad's rule, helping him remain in power after the outbreak of civil war in 2011.

Its two most important bases are the port of Tartus, which was established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and then expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the Hmeimim air base, which has been operating since 2015 and has been used to launch air strikes throughout Syria. In support of Assad.

Both have become major strategic bases for Russia, giving it easy access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean.

However, the lion fell It raised questions about the future Russian presence in Syria. Moscow seeks to negotiate with the new regime.

Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that no “final decisions” had been made and that Russia was “in contact with representatives of the forces that are now controlling the situation in (Syria).”

BBC Verify monitored activity at the Hmeimim air base using Planet Labs satellite images. There is evidence of continued activity involving large military transport aircraft. Two large Antonov An-124 aircraft, which can be used to transport assets out of Syria, were seen at the base on Friday. They had left by Tuesday, but two large planes were at the base again by Wednesday morning.

Other photos taken by Maxar Technologies on Sunday show dozens of military vehicles parked at the airport near a Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane, which could be used for evacuations.

BBC Verify tracked a large Russian Antonov An-124 as of Tuesday on aircraft tracking website Flightradar24. Its publicly available tracking device showed it flying over Russian airspace, moving in the direction of Syria. It then disappeared from Flightradar24 off the Syrian coast, west of Hmeimim Air Base, likely because its public tracking device was turned off. It can then be seen returning north six hours later.

said David Heathcote, director of intelligence at McKenzie Intelligence, quickly The collapse of the Assad government This means that Russia is unlikely to have a plan to evacuate resources.

He described the activity at the Hmeimim air base as “unusual,” suggesting that Russia is storing some resources at the base and preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria.

Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agrees that the images indicate “early stages of the Russian withdrawal from Syria, with clear signs of an air evacuation.”

“The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian ships in Tartus and the organized pre-positioning of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion,” Ozberk said.

BBC Verify reported last week how Russian warships left the port of TartousAnalysts point out that they are stationed in international waters at the moment.

Satellite images showed that those ships did not return, but more than 100 military vehicles arrived at the base in recent days.

Heathcote said it is likely vehicles will be ready for evacuation, although it is unlikely to be immediate due to the lack of loading ramps and cranes.

Recent footage also showed large columns of Russian vehicles moving, suggesting they were being redirected from other Russian outposts around the country.

BBC Verify geolocated the videos to a major highway, suggesting they were moving north towards the bases.

An 80-second video posted on X shows a long line of Russian vehicles, geographically positioned 30 km south of Homs. Another video clip showed a convoy of Russian vehicles on the same highway south, 70 kilometers outside Damascus.

“Russia is now withdrawing military units and equipment that were deployed in nearly a hundred strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus,” said Anton Mardasov, a non-resident researcher with the Syria Program at the Middle East Institutes in Syria.