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Russia appears to be withdrawing some of its forces stationed in Syria following the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, according to satellite imagery analysis and a Ukrainian intelligence assessment.
Images taken by Maxar and Planet Labs reveal an increase in the number of ground vehicles at Hmeimim Air Base, the arrival of several large transport aircraft and the dismantling of Russian helicopters and air defenses – all factors consistent with troops gathering there for departure.
A senior Ukrainian official agreed that it appeared that Moscow was removing a large amount of materiel from the country. However, it is unclear whether the activity is the beginning of partial or complete withdrawal.
“This withdrawal may signal a complete Russian exit from Syria, but it is too early to know,” said Michael Kaufman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The Russian presence throughout Syria is a legacy of its intervention in Syria Syrian Civil War Since 2015 when it deployed several thousand troops and air support to support Assad's fight against the rebels.
The Kremlin said its future in the country would depend on negotiations with a new government in Damascus after Assad fled a lightning opposition attack on Sunday. He has now been granted asylum in Moscow.
Loss of the air base in Hmeimim — and RussiaAnd Russia's naval base in Tartus – will be a strategic problem for Moscow, because they are used as logistical centers for the country's activities in the Mediterranean, as well as for its operations throughout Africa.
Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, said on Thursday that Moscow was holding “constructive” talks with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that led the attack, and that it hoped to maintain its military presence in the region.
“The bases were there at the request of the Syrian authorities with the aim of fighting terrorists and ISIS,” Bogdanov said, according to Interfax. “I assume everyone agrees that the war against terrorism and what remains of ISIS is far from over.”
He added: “It requires collective efforts, and our presence and base in Hmeimim has played an important role in the context of the broader struggle against global terrorism.”
Analysts said that Russia could offer the new Syrian government money, energy supplies, or the gold and diamonds it extracts from Africa, in addition to a possible broader political partnership. A former senior Russian official told the Financial Times that Russia communicates with HTS “with friendship and love.”
Maxar images of Hmeimim captured two An-124 aircraft on the airport runway. The An-124 is the largest heavy transport aircraft in the world, capable of carrying about 150 tons of cargo.
Three Il-76 transport planes, Russia's heavy lifters, were also on the ground. The photos also showed three An-32s and one An-72, which are smaller models of transport aircraft.
Maxar analysts noted that a Ka-52 attack helicopter “is being dismantled and potentially prepared for transport.” They also identified parts of an S-400 air defense unit “preparing to depart from its previous deployment location at the air base.”
Blogs that support the Kremlin's war on Ukraine also posted footage on the Telegram application of a large column of Russian military vehicles heading to the base in Hmeimim, and another driving his car in the direction of Tartous. The convoys, which stopped on the side of the road, included trucks flying the Russian flag, as well as armored personnel carriers and other equipment.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate said in a statement, “The remnants of the Russian military unit are being withdrawn from remote areas in Syria to the naval and air bases in Tartus and Hmeimim.”
Gur said: “There are four to five military transport planes flying between Hmeimim Airport and Russian airports every day.”
Drone Snapshots from the base A photo taken by Syrian television this week shows the extent of Russia's permanent presence at the Hmeimim base: fighter and bomber planes are still in hangars at the base, as well as helicopters.
At the naval base in Tartus, two Russian frigates are currently waiting in the port outside the base. But withdrawal by sea will be slower. GUR stated that two Russian ships previously used for military logistics were heading from the Baltic Sea towards the port.
