Written by Marek Strzelecki and Lily Baer (OTC:)
WARSAW (Reuters) – Poland began its presidency of the European Union Council on Friday amid a diplomatic spat with Hungary that highlights a growing sense of political division across Europe as it faces a host of major global challenges.
The European Union, which is suffering from a slowdown in the economy, is preparing for the return of Donald Trump to the White House this month on an “America First” platform and the possibility of imposing US tariffs on European exports.
It is also facing deteriorating trade relations with China and Russia's devastating war in Ukraine, all at a time when the two leading powers in the European Union, France and Germany, have become preoccupied with internal political turmoil.
The Polish government said the Hungarian envoy was not welcome at a ceremony marking Warsaw's six-month rotating presidency of the European Union, a very public snub that comes after months of political recriminations between the leaders of the two countries.
Hungary angered Poland last month by granting political asylum to Poland's former deputy justice minister, who is under investigation in the country on charges of misusing public funds, which he denies. Warsaw described the move as a “hostile act” contrary to European Union principles and recalled its ambassador to Budapest.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó described Friday's snub as “childish,” news website HVG.hu reported. This Polish move added increasing signs of European dissonance.
Slovakia, which along with Hungary has sought to maintain some ties with Russia, threatened retaliation on Thursday against Ukraine after it halted Russian gas transit flows, while negotiations on forming a new government in Austria suffered a blow on Friday when a major party withdrew. Conversations.
Polish ambitions
Against this bleak background, Poland seeks to play a leadership role in shaping European policy, especially in the field of security.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hopes “to lead a realignment in the EU when it comes to building a coalition around support for Ukraine and a meaningful peace that benefits Kiev, not Moscow,” said Edith Zgout Przybylska, an associate professor at the Institute of Philosophy. and Sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Tusk, a former president of the European Council who also previously served as head of the center-right European People's Party, is a well-connected figure on the EU scene.
But as European capitals face tough decisions on issues such as how to boost and finance defense spending, analysts say Warsaw is unlikely to be able to lead alone.
Piotr Boras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations office in Warsaw, said the current challenges facing the EU exceed the capacity and time horizon of any six-month presidency.
“This is an important moment for Europe, above all, because of the arrival of Trump and the situation in Ukraine, but also because of issues related to the broader economy, competitiveness and perhaps a trade war with a simultaneous weakness in leadership and a moment of transition within the European Union itself.” Boras said.
Poland also suffers from its internal deviations. Boras said that despite his high European ambitions, Tusk's first goal in the coming months will be to ensure the victory of his centrist pro-EU camp in Poland's presidential elections scheduled for May.
“Imagine the debate about sending European troops to Ukraine or about trade relations with Ukraine in May – it shows the limitations of Poland and the sensitivity of the national agenda in the face of the EU agenda,” Boras said.
Regarding European collective security and support for Kiev, some analysts said Germany, Europe's largest economy, could play a bigger role after national elections on February 23, which the conservatives are currently expected to win.
“The only hope is that the new German leadership decides to take a more active and assertive stance,” said Petr Bator, a former Slovak ambassador to NATO who is now a chief analyst for the opposition Progressive Slovak Party.
