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There is a security crisis brewing in Europe. Two dangerous elements could come together in 2025: the growing threat from Russia and the growing indifference from Donald Trump's America.
European countries urgently need to respond to this worrying geopolitical mix by building their own defences. For this to happen, it is crucial for Germany, Europe's largest economy, to finally fulfill Chancellor Olaf Scholz's initiative. He promises Due to the significant increase in defense spending.
Making the political case for increased defense spending requires clarity about what is going on in both Russia and America.
Mark Rutte, the newly appointed Secretary General of NATO, to caution Last month: “The Russian economy is at war…Danger is moving towards us at full speed.” He urged NATO to rapidly increase defense production and “switch to a war mentality.”
Last April, General Christopher Cavoli, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, warned: “Russia shows no sign of stopping. Nor does Russia intend to stop with Ukraine.” Western analysts say Russia is already engaged in Hybrid war with Europe – involving regular acts of sabotage that threaten mass casualties.
During the Cold War, the United States led the Allied response when Russia increased military pressure in Europe. But the American reaction this time promises to be completely different. President-elect Trump's key appointments include advisers who are clear about their desire to redeploy US military assets from Europe to Asia.
Elbridge Colby, who has just been nominated to be Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, books Last year, he said in the Financial Times that China was a much higher priority for the United States than Russia, and argued that “the United States should withhold forces from Europe needed for Asia, even if Russia attacks first.”
European defense analysts worry that a US military withdrawal from Europe would encourage Russian aggression. Recently book, “Withdrawing US military support for NATO is the surest possible way to make a Russian attack outside Ukraine a possibility,” says Keir Giles of Chatham House.
However, for much of Europe, the Russian threat still seems distant. During nearly three years of fighting in Ukraine, Moscow's armies made limited territorial gains and suffered staggering losses – now estimated at about 700,000 soldiers killed or wounded.
But the scale of losses that Vladimir Putin is willing to absorb should also serve as a warning. The Russian army is now larger than it was at the start of the war in 2022. As Rutte recently noted, the country produces “huge numbers of tanks, armored vehicles and ammunition.”
European countries lack the manpower and equipment necessary to engage in a war of attrition like the one Russia is waging in Ukraine. At the beginning of last year, the British army had 73,520 soldiers, the lowest number since 1792. The German army had 64,000 soldiers.
NATO military planners believe the alliance is about a third short of where it needs to be to effectively deter Russia. There are particular shortages of air defence, logistics, ammunition and secure communications equipment.
Alliance members are currently committed to spending 2 percent of GDP on defence. They may raise this nominal target to 3 percent at the next NATO summit. But even this will not be enough unless European countries agree to make procurement less fragmented along national lines.
The 3 percent target is also based on the assumption that America will largely maintain its commitment to NATO. If that does not happen, defense planners believe European countries will need to increase defense spending to 4.5 percent of GDP. But even 3 percent seems very difficult. The problem is embodied in Rutte's record as Prime Minister of the Netherlands from 2010 to 2024. His country achieved the 2 percent target only in the last year of his term.
The closer you get to the Russian border, the more serious the Russian threat becomes. Poland is on track to increase its defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2025. But in… Major Western European economiesIt's a different story. Germany and France achieved barely 2 percent last year; Britain reached 2.3 percent.
France suffers from a budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP, and a public debt of more than 100 percent. The British government is also heavily indebted and struggling to raise revenues.
But Germany – with a debt-to-GDP ratio of just over 60 percent – has the fiscal space to spend more on defence. It also still has a large industrial and engineering base.
Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats, who is likely to become Germany's chancellor after elections this year, takes the Russian threat seriously. He could preside over a historic transformation. If Germany relaxes its constitutional provisions against deficit financing – and accepts the need for common EU debt to finance European defense – this could transform the continent's security landscape.
Even eighty years after the end of World War II, some of Germany's neighbors – especially Poland and France – will be troubled by Germany's rearmament. But in order to achieve their security interests, they must overcome this problem.
