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“There are only two of us left among the leaders. Now it is me and Vladimir Putin.” This was the immodest judgment passed on Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week.
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump may question the Turkish president's global rankings. But at the regional level, Erdogan has a good claim to being one of the two strong leaders reshaping the Middle East. His hated rival, Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, is the other.
Erdogan's current arrogance stems from his role in Syria. Türkiye was the only regional power to put its full weight behind Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that overthrew the Assad regime. Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence visited Damascus, days after Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham took power.
Erdogan has long aspired to rebuild Turkish power across the lands of the old Ottoman Empire. For him, the overthrow of Assad opens a new path to regional influence. It is also possible that he has Local payment – Weakening the Kurds in Syria, alleviating the refugee problem in Türkiye and helping his bid to remain president after 2028.
Türkiye's alliances with Islamist groups such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the Muslim Brotherhood are viewed as a serious threat by Israel and the conservative Gulf monarchies. Israel moved to destroy Syria's military capacity, bombed its naval and air forces, and seized territory outside the Golan Heights, which Israel had occupied since 1967.
The Israeli government portrayed its movements as precautionary and defensive. But Netanyahu, like Erdogan, sees opportunities available to him. Speaking last week, he said: “Something tectonic has happened here, an earthquake that has not happened in a hundred years since the Sykes-Picot agreement.” This reference to the Anglo-French Agreement of 1916 that divided the Ottoman Empire appears to be of great importance. In light of the turmoil in the Middle East, supporters of Greater Israel see an opportunity to redraw the region's borders once again. Aluf Ben from Haaretz He writes Netanyahu “appears to be searching for a legacy as the leader who expanded Israel's borders after 50 years of decline.”
The settler movement, well represented in Netanyahu's coalition government, is pushing for Israel's reoccupation of parts of Gaza. The incoming Trump administration may give Israel the green light to officially annex parts of the occupied West Bank. The “temporary” occupation of Syrian lands may be permanent.
Beyond that, Netanyahu will see an opportunity to make a final reckoning with Iran. The Islamic Republic is in its weakest position in decades. It faces internal opposition, and will feel unstable due to the fall of the authoritarian regime in Syria. Tehran has witnessed the destruction of its allies – Hamas, Hezbollah, and now Assad.
Iran may respond to the loss of its regional proxies with an accelerated push to acquire nuclear weapons. But this may require an attack by Israel. After the Netanyahu government's successful offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon – a campaign that the Biden administration had warned about – Israelis are in a confident and radical mood.
Over the past year, Israel has demonstrated its ability to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously — including Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and now Syria. The Israelis are also the only nuclear-armed power in the region, and currently enjoy almost complete support from the United States.
Netanyahu's chances of going down in history as a successful leader seemed slim after the disaster of the October 7 attacks carried out by Hamas. He is highly controversial at home and abroad, and is currently on trial for corruption in Israel.
Like Erdogan, Netanyahu is a ruthless political survivor. Both of them assumed power for the first time in decades and consider themselves men of destiny. However, their dreams of regional hegemony suffer from similar weaknesses. Israel and Turkey are two non-Arab powers in an Arab-majority region. There is no appetite in the Arab world to recreate an Ottoman empire. Israel remains an alien power in the Middle East, feared, distrusted and often hated.
Türkiye and Israel's economic base is too weak to truly aspire to regional hegemony. The Turkish economy suffers from inflation. Despite its technological and military prowess, Israel is a small country with a population of less than 10 million.
The competing ambitions of Erdogan and Netanyahu in Syria could easily clash. It risks becoming a battleground for rival regional powers because Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states also have interests at stake there.
Last week, while the Turks were chanting the fall of Damascus and the Israelis were destroying the Syrian army, Saudi Arabia celebrated a more peaceful achievement: it was chosen to host the 2034 World Cup.
The Saudis and Gulf states may feel more directly threatened by Türkiye's Islamist alliances than by Israel's regional ambitions. But Riyadh knows that the Israeli attack on Gaza has terrified a large part of the Arab world. Approaching Netanyahu to block Erdogan would be controversial, especially if the Israelis are simultaneously burying any possibility of a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Israel and Turkey have two powerful armies. But the Saudis, Qatar and the UAE have the financial strength. Whatever path Riyadh decides to take, it could shape the Middle East more fundamentally than the actions of Erdogan and Netanyahu.
