Moldova faces an energy crisis as the flow of Russian gas stops

On New Year's Day, the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine stopped.

Kiev described the day as “historic” as its refusal to extend the transit agreement with Russia's Gazprom halted the flow of cash to fund the all-out invasion of Ukraine.

But in neighboring Moldova, the move threatens to cause a crisis.

In Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova loyal to Moscow, the year began by heating only hospitals and vital infrastructure, not homes.

“I checked the hot water until about 2am. Now it's off and the radiators are barely warm,” Dimitri told the BBC by phone from his apartment in the enclave.

“We still have gas, but the pressure is very low – just what's left in the pipes.”

“It's the same everywhere.”

Transnistria was separated from the rest of Moldova in a short war with the collapse of the Soviet Union. It still has Russian troops on its territory and an economy completely dependent on Russian gas, for which the authorities in Tiraspol pay nothing.

“They just have a file, where the amount of debt is mentioned every month,” explains Jakub Bienkowski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, PSIM. “But Russia is not interested in requesting this money.”

Suddenly, the lifeline through Ukraine was cut off.

In some Transnistrian cities, authorities are setting up “heating points” and hotlines to help find firewood. Families were advised to gather in one room to keep warm and cover cracks in windows and doors with blankets.

New Year's Day witnessed sunshine in the enclave, but the temperature during the night is expected to drop below zero degrees Celsius.

“It's cold now inside the apartment,” says Dmitry, a local resident. “And we don't know what frost January will bring.”

Electricity is still flowing today.

But Transnistria's main power station at Korchugan is already fueled by coal rather than Russian gas, and authorities say there is enough of that to last only 50 days.

This means problems for the rest of Moldova, which gets 80% of its electricity from Korchugan.

The government in Chisinau says it has enough gas to heat the country until spring, and that it will switch to buying electricity from Europe, but this means a huge rise in costs.

A state of emergency was imposed last month and businesses and citizens were told to reduce consumption as the country braced for power outages.

The sudden stop of gas supplies through Ukraine affects Slovakia and Hungary as well.

Both have governments sympathetic to Moscow, and have been much slower than other EU governments to divest from Russian fuel and stop financing the Russian war. Paying more for replacement supplies will put a strain on their budgets.

But Moldova is poorer and less stable – and a prolonged crisis could have serious economic and political consequences.

Perhaps this is what Moscow wants.

Russia can supply its allies in Transnistria via Türkiye, albeit at a higher cost, which means electricity for all of Moldova.

Instead, Gazprom claims it has halted supplies because the city of Chisinau owes about $700 million. The Moldovan government says an international audit estimated the real amount at about $9 million, most of which has been paid.

Olga Rusca, foreign policy advisor to the President of Moldova, told the BBC: “We are not dealing with this crisis as an energy crisis, but rather a security crisis, caused by Russia to destabilize Moldova economically and socially.”

He added: “It is clear that this is a formation process before the parliamentary elections in 2025, to create demand for the return of pro-Russian forces to power.”

Relations between Moldova and Moscow are tense.

The country, once part of the Soviet Union, has begun talks to join the European Union and has moved more decisively away from Russia since its all-out invasion of Ukraine.

President Maia Sandu was re-elected last year despite evidence of a widespread campaign against her led by Moscow.

He didn't stop.

Before her inauguration, Russia's foreign intelligence agency (SVR) issued a bizarre statement falsely claiming that it planned to retake Transnistria by force to restore energy supplies. She portrayed the president as “frenzied” and “emotionally unstable.”

Analyst Jacob Penkovsky agrees that the Kremlin is taking advantage of Kiev's decision to ban the transit of Russian gas.

“It is a reason to raise some political and social issues in Moldova,” he says. He added, “Electricity prices have already risen about six times in three years, and people are angry.”

As the humanitarian situation in Transnistria worsens, pressure on Chisinau will increase. But Tiraspol refuses all aid, even generators.

“They will create a story about Chisinau freezing and subjugating Transnistria,” Olga Ruska believes.

Even if Tiraspol chose to buy gas elsewhere, the hit to its economy could be catastrophic.

“Prices here will rise sharply, including for heating and food,” Dmitry told me from Bendere in the buffer zone on the outskirts of Transnistria. “But pensions here are meager, and there is no work.”

He says people there are barely “hanging on” as it is. Now life elsewhere in Moldova will become more difficult.

“Russia could wait for the elections and then non-EU parties will likely win,” Jakob Penkovsky predicts.

“Because Maia Sandu can talk about joining the European Union. But what good is that if people don't have money to buy electricity or gas?”

“This is Russia's goal.”