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last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov The United States rejected the proposal that reportedly came from President-elect Donald Trump's team seeking to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which will cross the four-year mark next February.
Lavrov said: “Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals made on behalf of representatives of the president-elect’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years, as well as to send a peacekeeping force of British and European forces to Ukraine.” This was stated in an interview with the Russian state news agency TASS.
Lavrov's statement is likely to foreshadow the aggressive stance that Russian President Vladimir Putin will take with Trump regarding Ukraine. Reaching an agreement with Putin, even for a strong negotiator like Trump, is likely to be nearly impossible. This is why.
During his annual press conference last month, Putin ruled out a peace deal with the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In response to a journalist's question about whether he had any preconditions for starting negotiations on Ukraine, Putin denied the existence of any preconditions. However, when clarifying his answer, Putin stated that Russia would “sign documents” “except with representatives of legitimate authorities.”
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Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual year-end press conference and phone call in Moscow on December 19, 2024. (Reuters/Maxim Shemetov)
He said that Zelensky and his government are “illegitimate,” explaining that “Ukraine's constitution does not include provisions for expanding presidential power even in wartime.” Zelensky's term actually ended on May 20. “You know, if someone runs for election and gets legitimacy, we will talk to anyone, including Zelensky,” Putin added.
Putin, a lawyer by profession, claimed that only Ukraine's parliament is unicameral The President of Ukraine and its president, Ruslan Stefanchuk, were “legitimate”, because the Ukrainian Constitution allowed for the expansion of the Rada's powers during the war. However, he claimed that the Rada and its head were “completely subordinate to the head of the regime,” likely referring to the fact that Zelensky’s party, “Servant of the People,” controlled a majority in the body after the 2019 parliamentary elections. Putin is making the argument that the illegitimacy of Zelensky, who Technically superior to Stefanchuk, it makes Parliament and its decisions illegal.
Putin also ruled out a ceasefire during his press conference. A Russian journalist asked whether it was “possible” to “simply reach a ceasefire at any moment” in order to “stop the war,” referring to Trump and his retired Russian-Ukrainian envoy. Lt. Gen. Keith KelloggWho said he talked about ending the war before Trump's inauguration on January 20.
Fellow soldiers carry the coffin of Petro Velikiy, 48, who was killed in battle with Russian forces in Russia's Kursk region, during a farewell ceremony at the Music and Drama Theater in Chernihiv, Ukraine, on Wednesday, November 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Dan Pashakov)
Putin responded by saying: “Suspending (combat operations) for a week means giving the opponent an opportunity to secure a foothold in his positions. Giving him an opportunity to take a rest, obtain the necessary military equipment, ammunition…” Afterwards, Putin claimed that “a relatively long period of truce will enable the adversary to obtain training and retraining,” arguing in favor of maintaining momentum while Russian forces deplete “weapon systems, ammunition and military materiel.” “Ammunition and, most importantly, personnel of the Ukrainian army.”
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Putin feels confident that he can continue until Ukraine surrenders or until the agreement is reached on Russia's terms, terms that are unacceptable to Washington and too likely even for the Trump team. Putin wants to keep about 20% of Ukraine's territory, in addition to the Crimean Peninsula, and legal guarantees that Ukraine will become a neutral country with no way to join NATO, the lifting of American and Western sanctions on Russia, and the West's recognition of the areas it annexed as Russian regions.
Putin is confident of his ability to reach a difficult deal, even with Trump. From a potential warfighting perspective—weapons, forces, defense economics, and military industrial production capacity—Russia, which the Pentagon itself considers a “near peer competitor” to the US military, has an overwhelming strategic advantage over Ukraine. Since Russia's population is three times larger than that of Ukraine, the workforce also greatly favors Moscow.
Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Trump Tower on Friday, September 27, 2024, in New York City. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nickinson)
Putin has been mobilizing additional forces non-stop throughout this conflict, including by covert means. Russia has already sent a force 15% larger than at the beginning of the war. In September, Putin ordered, by decree, a further increase in Russia's armed forces, adding 180,000 soldiers. The Russian army now numbers 2.38 million personnel, including 1.5 million active soldiers. Putin showed that he is able to use members of his allies, after he added 11,000 North Korean soldiers to the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
Putin was even mocking the Trump team, albeit indirectly. The Russian dictator challenged Washington to a “21st century high-tech duel” to test US air defense and missile defense systems against Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missileWhich will target Kyiv. “We are ready for such an experiment. But is the other side ready? Let us conduct such an experiment, such a technological duel and see what happens. I think it will be beneficial for us and for the American side.”
Putin noted that to start the talks, Trump would need to reach out to him first. In response to an NBC journalist's question about when Putin will meet with Trump and what kind of concessions he will make, given that “he will be a weaker leader,” Putin said: “First of all, I don't know when he and I will meet.” “I will meet, because he doesn’t say anything about it, and I haven’t spoken to him for more than four years.” Putin added that he was “ready” to talk to Trump “at any time” if he wanted to.
Ukrainian forces fight during military operations in the Kursk region in Malaya Lukhnya, Kursk region, Russia, in this image obtained from a video released on August 20, 2024. (Air Assault Brigade/Handout via Reuters)
Putin denied that he was in a weaker position, stating that he had a “different point of view,” saying: “I think Russia has become much stronger over the past two or three years. Why? Because we have become a real state.” A sovereign state, we do not depend on many.” Indeed, in anticipation of Western sanctions imposed on Moscow and in their aftermath, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin has been working to protect the Russian economy from sanctions and reduce its dependence on foreign, especially Western, technology.
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Putin's measures included launching an import substitution program through Russian manufacturing industries to stimulate domestic production, de-dollarizing the Russian sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves, leading the BRICS group and an initiative aimed at replacing the US dollar with an alternative currency. The main currency for international exchange, and strengthening economic and military relations with non-Western countries and allies of the United States, such as India, and its adversaries, such as China, Iran, and North Korea.
Given that Putin will almost certainly aggressively address the limited leverage the United States has with Russia — unlike, say, China — Team Trump Ukraine will have to look for creative solutions, if the master of the “art of the deal” is to fulfill his campaign promise to bring peace to Ukraine.
