In the face of turmoil, Trudeau remains defiant for now

It has been one of the worst weeks of his political career, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was at his best.

At the Liberal Party's annual holiday meeting, Trudeau put on a party face, despite being shocked a day earlier by the sudden resignation of one of his most trusted allies, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, just hours before he was scheduled to deliver an economic statement in Parliament. Parliament.

But even as some members of his own party were calling for him to resign, the Prime Minister struck a firm and defiant tone as he addressed party supporters in his dark blue suit and tie.

He referred to his “difficult” week and compared it to a family quarrel.

He discussed being “bold” and “ambitious” in the face of adversity, and took sharp criticism at his political rival, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservative Party of Canada.

Critics noted afterward that it sounded more like a campaign speech, and that despite the recent political turmoil, Trudeau seemed to be sticking to it.

That position did not change on Friday, even after the leader of the country's progressive New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, said he would put forward a motion to oust Trudeau's government in the new year. It was NDP support that kept the Liberals in power. Elections now seem imminent.

However, Trudeau has so far given no indication that he will resign soon, although he has told fellow party members that he will take some time over the winter break to think about what to do.

Political observers say Trudeau has often shown a streak of defiance when under pressure, which has helped him overcome a number of controversies during his nine years in power.

He has often been underestimated, such as when he won majority government in 2015 at the age of 44, despite being portrayed by his political opponents as an amateur.

But as pressure mounts for him to resign, some of these same experts say he may need a new strategy.

When Trudeau first ran for prime minister, three words followed him: “I'm not ready.”

The phrase was the slogan for an attack ad that ran repeatedly across the country as he attempted to oust current Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a conservative who has been in power since 2004.

It conveyed the common criticisms he faced at the time regarding his young age, relative lack of experience, and his winding path into politics.

Canadian historian Raymond Blake said Trudeau “kind of wandered around” early in life before becoming a drama teacher in Vancouver, seemingly isolated as the wealthy and famous son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

But soon after entering politics, Trudeau adopted a combative stance.

It's a trait some say he learned from his father, who was known for his charismatic and combative leadership style and who famously said “Just watch me,” which he told a reporter at the height of the political movement. calamity.

“His father had an image as a very resilient and tough politician,” said Lawrence Martin, a Canadian political columnist based in Washington, D.C.

The younger Trudeau continued to defy the odds himself by delivering a historic victory for his Liberal Party, moving it from third place in Parliament to a majority mandate in its first federal election.

“It kind of makes him feel like he can overcome big obstacles,” Martin said, adding that Trudeau operates politically with “an excessive amount of self-confidence.”

Trudeau's road to power became bumpy once he took office, after he was embroiled in a number of political scandals.

In his first term, Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould — the first Indigenous woman to hold the position — resigned over what she described as interference attempts and “veiled threats” from senior government officials seeking legal favors for a company facing a corruption trial. .

While he was vying for a second term in 2019, Trudeau's re-election campaign was rocked by photos released showing him as a younger man wearing brownface on at least three occasions.

A year later, in 2020, Trudeau faced another ethics scandal involving a potentially large government contract for a youth charity that worked with Trudeau family members.

But in the face of every setback, Trudeau has held on to power. He has won re-election twice, making him the longest-serving leader among his G7 peers.

“Trudeau has survived a lot,” Professor Blake said, noting that his political successes and leadership have won the loyalty of many in his party despite the scandals.

Although Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be up.

First, history is not on his side. Only one Canadian Prime Minister, Sir John MacDonald – the country's first – has served four consecutive terms.

Trudeau is also working against his declining popularity. An Ipsos poll conducted in September indicated that about two-thirds of Canadians disapproved of it. Only 26% of respondents said Trudeau is their best choice for prime minister, putting him 19 points behind Conservative Leader Poilievre.

Then there is the slowly dwindling support within Trudeau's own party. So far, at least 18 Liberal MPs have called on their leader to step down.

“He's delusional if he thinks we can continue like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.

“It's unfair to us MPs, it's unfair to ministers, and most importantly, it's unfair to the country. We need to move forward in a new direction and we need to restart,” he added.

According to Long, who led the campaign to impeach Trudeau, as many as 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him to resign immediately. About the same number are loyal to Trudeau, and the rest are neutral, he said.

“There are still some party loyalists who love him and, you know, want to continue to support him,” Martin said. DC columnist. “But if you had a secret Liberal caucus vote on whether he should stay in office or not, he would be easily defeated.”

Martin noted that the Prime Minister also appears driven to remain due to his disdain for his political rival, Poilievre.

“He does not want to back down and wants to confront Pierre Poilievre, whom he hates,” he said.

Trudeau's stubborn perseverance in the face of a bleak political outlook has drawn comparisons to outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his candidacy months before the November election after mounting domestic pressure.

Professor Blake said Trudeau's legacy, like Biden's, will depend on how he exits. He said fighting a losing battle could give Trudeau a “permanent scar.” He pointed out that the Prime Minister has a remarkable ability to survive.

“He was a survivor, and he didn't do what was normal. Will normality – whatever it is – return to its place this time? Maybe, but I'm not convinced.”

Trudeau's dilemma also resembles that faced by his father, who won three elections in a row, then won a fourth after leaving power for less than a year.

But by 1984, more than 15 years after he first became prime minister, the elder Trudeau, like his son now, faced tough polls. It seemed clear that he would not win the next elections if he remained in office. He decided to step down and told the audience that he made the decision after walking through a snowstorm in Ottawa.

Since then, the term “walking in the snow” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. This Christmas, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau will stage his own march.