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Along with the Middle East, Ukraine's future is one of the crucial geopolitical issues in the coming year. US President-elect Donald Trump spoke about ending Russia's unprovoked aggressive war against its neighbor within 24 hours of his return to office. Kyiv has indicated its willingness to reach an agreement on its own terms. Despite the tensions in Economy of RussiaHowever, Vladimir Putin – whose forces have made slow but steady progress in the past year – shows little inclination to come to the table. The greatest risk is that Ukraine will be pushed into a truce that will harm the country, European security, and ultimately the United States and other allies as well.
The fear in Europe is that Trump may prioritize a quick operation deal As an early reward for his presidency. He raised the issue of forcing Kyiv to enter into talks by threatening to cut off US aid. But without pressure on Moscow as well, this would almost certainly amount to capitulation to Russia's demands, including neutrality and disarmament in Ukraine.
the The risks of such a transaction Clear. A very weak Ukraine could slide back into Moscow's orbit, or succumb to another Russian attack later. Kiev's leadership may not even accept a deal that amounts to surrender, but it chooses to continue fighting, even without US support. European countries will feel a moral and strategic obligation to provide assistance. Either way, although Trump may see taking the United States out of Ukraine as freeing it to focus instead on China, any appearance that Washington has abandoned an ally would embolden not just Beijing, but the likes of North Korea and Iran. .
An alternative agreement is at least conceivable, much more difficult to achieve but much better for Ukraine and its allies. It will seek to ensure that while Russia may retain effective control over some territory in Ukraine – however abhorrent that prospect may be – the rest of the territory will be able to rebuild, join the European Union and prosper.
There are two main challenges to realizing such a vision. One is to force the rebellious Putin to come to the table willing to compromise; After all, his goal was not so much to seize territory as to undermine the Ukrainian state. But it may be possible to nudge the Russian leader toward an agreement with a warning, as Trump did It was suggested – That the United States will give Ukraine “more than it has ever received.”
This requires not only making a promise, but quickly providing more military aid to Kiev to show its seriousness. Risks Russian escalation will increase. However, as some people close to the US President-elect acknowledge, any “bad” deal for Ukraine could amount to a “Trump Afghanistan,” a reference to the disorderly withdrawal in 2021 under Joe Biden, which Trump is said to revile. European allies should press this argument with the new president.
The second challenge is that any agreement that allows the rest of Ukraine to be rebuilt must be supported Security guarantees Strong enough to deter Moscow from launching future attacks. Since consensus on inviting Kiev to join NATO may be impossible, and since Trump is looking to reduce, not expand, US military commitments in Europe, it may fall to European countries to make such arrangements. French President Emmanuel Macron led consultations on security guarantees, including possible ones Deployment of forces. But progress has been limited. Adequate arrangements will require the mobilization of European forces and resources that are currently depleted on a scale not seen in decades.
Neither a “bad” ceasefire nor a prolonged continuation of a destructive war with little hope of restoring Ukraine’s safety is an attractive option. Reaching an acceptable agreement would be complex and expensive to support. However, incurring these costs now may avoid much larger costs in the future.
