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Something is likely to happen next week: Donald Trump may be delivered to positive newspapers as a result of standard immigration. Perhaps it is still more curious, a similar phenomenon in the United Kingdom instead gives Care Starmer and Rashil Reeves a headache.
Either way, the narration is formed through how labor market statistics dealt with the revelation that the population is greater than it had been achieved previously. But this plays in different ways on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the last quarter, the British Office made the National Statistics to review its estimates Net migration During the two years ending in December 2023, with an account that about 300,000 people were more believed to be at first and remained in the United Kingdom, by 20 percent. This increase, as well as some of the updated assumptions below the surface, feed them Reference Population expectations published earlier this week.
If this seems to be a major amendment, the American Statistical Office increased its net grade in 2022 and 2023 by nearly 90 percentFrom 2.1 million to 4 million, the addition of another 2.8 million for 2024. As a result, it is now believed that the American population growth last year was faster In decades.
To be clear: the fact that these are Reviews Something good happens. Either way, the migration method Reckon It improves, with the help of a large part by integrating the administrative DataIt is more accurate and timely than the sources based on the survey. However, it is better to have more accurate reviews and numbers, than there are no reviews and the wrong numbers are still.
But big transformations like this not only change what we thought we know about the size of the population and growth rates. It affects economic indicators as well, not the least of which is the statistics of the labor market.
Next Friday monthly American job reportThe first period of Trump's state of state, will merge a set of reviews of basic survey data, including the dramatic bullish adjustment of the size of the population.
Analysis of Brookings Institute and PoisonPreviously, senior economists during the era of Joe Biden, indicates this, on the contrary Reports Last year, the new figures will likely appear that Americans born in indigenous newborn are not lost in the labor market for migrants. In fact, the employment born in the United States grows.
The incorrectly low population Numbers Artificial decrease in the estimated employment levels derived from the main family economic survey in America, causing a decrease in employment born in the United States. In fact, the population growth was so high that although the original born share has decreased, the original generated number is still rising.
Through the Atlantic Ocean, it has similar reviews completely different effect. Good problems with the workforce in Britain reconnaissance It means that the United Kingdom is increasingly tending to the administrative Data To take the labor market temperature. And that He appears The number of employees who classified them at work age is flat for most last year, before dipping.
It is important, because these numbers depend on tax records, not the proportions derived from investigative studies, the unexpectedly high population numbers grow only Qasim in the employment rate, not both sides of the equation as in the United States. As a result, the numbers of stagnant jobs in the United Kingdom are translated into a noticeable deterioration in the conditions of the labor market when looking at them against the strong background of immigration population growth.
The number of employees in the UK at work age decreased by 0.2 percentage points on an annual basis, but it is expressed as a percentage of the population, the decrease is almost a full-deeper percentage point since then 2008And the epidemic. Where the 2008 high labor market was mainly driven by shrinking rugs (job losses), this square comes primarily from Qasim expanding (unemployed expatriates).
The depth of this recession is likely to be less limited, because some new arrivals may be for their own account or in other types of employment that are struggled by tax -based jobs in the UK. But the general image of population growth that exceeds job growth is clear.
While statistics such as the numbers of people and workers in the country may feel solid, the set of reviews and methodological differences highlights the fake nature of many Novels This shape around them. The image becomes more accurate over time, but there will be blurry moments along the way.
