22 December 2024

AFP Leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham Abu Muhammad al-Julani speaks to a crowd of people at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Syria, after the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad (December 8, 2024)Agence France-Presse

Abu Muhammad al-Julani speaks to his supporters at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus hours after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad

Syrian rebel leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani dropped the nom de guerre associated with his jihadist past, and used his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in official statements issued since Thursday, before the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

This move comes as part of Al-Julani's efforts to strengthen his legitimacy in a new context, as his armed Islamist group, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which leads other rebel factions, announced the seizure of the Syrian capital, Damascus, strengthening its control over the capital. A lot of country.

Al-Julani's transformation is not recent, but has been carefully nurtured over the years, evident not only in his public statements and interviews with international media but also in his evolving appearance.

After wearing the traditional militant jihadi uniform, he has adopted more Western-style clothing in recent years. Now, as he leads the attack, he wears a military uniform, symbolizing his role as commander of the operations room.

But who is Al-Julani – or Ahmed Al-Sharaa – and why and how did he change?

The link between ISIS and Iraq

A 2021 PBS interview with Al-Julani revealed that he was born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia, where his father worked as an oil engineer until 1989.

In that year, the Al-Julani family returned to Syria, where he grew up and lived in the Mezzeh neighborhood in Damascus.

Al-Julani's journey as a jihadist began in Iraq, where he was linked to Al-Qaeda through the Islamic State (ISIS), Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and later the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).

After the 2003 US-led invasion, he joined other foreign fighters in Iraq, and in 2005, he was imprisoned at Camp Bucca, where he consolidated his jihadist affiliations. He was later introduced to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the quiet scholar who later went on to lead ISIS.

In 2011, Al-Baghdadi sent Al-Jolani to Syria with funding to create the Al-Nusra Front, a secret faction linked to the Islamic State in Iraq. By 2012, the Al-Nusra Front had become a prominent Syrian fighting force, concealing its ties to ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

Reuters Nusra Front fighters ride a pickup truck carrying an anti-aircraft gun in Idlib Governorate, northwestern Syria (December 2, 2014)Reuters

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi al-Julani was sent to Syria to establish the Al-Nusra Front

Tensions arose in 2013 when al-Baghdadi's group in Iraq unilaterally announced the merger of the two groups (Islamic State of Iraq and al-Nusra), announcing the creation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS or ISIS), and publicly revealing the links for the first time. Between them.

Al-Julani resisted, because he wanted to distance his group from the violent tactics of ISIS, which led to the split.

To get out of this difficult situation, Al-Julani pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda, making the Al-Nusra Front its Syrian branch.

From the beginning, he prioritized winning Syrian support, distanced himself from the brutality of ISIS, and emphasized a more realistic approach to jihad.

Joining Al-Qaeda

In April 2013, the Al-Nusra Front became a branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, putting it at odds with the Islamic State.

While al-Julani's move was partly an attempt to maintain domestic support and avoid alienating Syrians and rebel factions, the al-Qaeda affiliation ultimately did little to benefit the effort.

The matter became an urgent challenge in 2015 when Jabhat al-Nusra and other factions took control of Idlib Governorate, forcing them to cooperate in its administration.

Screenshot from Reuters of a video showing Abu Muhammad al-Julani speaking in 2016 under the banner of Jabhat Fatah al-ShamReuters

Al-Julani renamed Jabhat al-Nusra to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham in 2016. The following year it became Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.

In 2016, Al-Julani severed his ties with Al-Qaeda, renaming the group as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and then as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in 2017.

Although the division seemed superficial at first, it revealed deeper divisions. Al-Qaeda accused al-Julani of treason, leading to defections and the formation of Hurras al-Din, a new branch of al-Qaeda in Syria, which was later crushed by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in 2020. However, members of Hurras al-Din remained a cautious presence in Syria. Area.

HTS also targeted ISIS members and foreign fighters in Idlib, dismantling their networks and forcing some of them to undergo “de-radicalization” programs.

These moves, which were justified as efforts to unify armed forces and reduce infighting, signaled al-Julani's strategy to position Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a dominant and politically viable force in Syria.

Despite publicly separating from al-Qaeda and changing the name, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham continued to be designated by the United Nations, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other countries as a terrorist organization, and the United States maintained a $10 million reward for information about al-Jolani's whereabouts. The Western powers considered the disintegration to be just a facade.

Forming a “government” in Idlib

Salvation Government Abu Muhammad al-Julani responds to questions in a press conference following the February 2023 earthquake in northern SyriaSalvation government

Al-Julani held a press conference following the devastating earthquakes that struck Syria in 2023

Under al-Julani, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham became the dominant force in Idlib, the largest rebel stronghold in northwestern Syria that is home to about four million people, many of whom were displaced from other Syrian provinces.

To address concerns about an armed group ruling the region, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham established a civilian front, called the Syrian Salvation Government (SG), in 2017 as its political and administrative arm.

The Salvation Government functioned as a state, with a prime minister, ministries, and local administrations overseeing sectors such as education, health, and reconstruction, while maintaining a religious council guided by Islamic law.

Salvation Government Abu Muhammad al-Julani visits the Book, Arts and Culture Exhibition in Idlib in 2022Salvation government

The photo was taken of Al-Julani looking at a painting of the Umayyad Mosque during a visit to the Book, Arts and Culture Exhibition in Idlib in 2022.

To reshape his image, Al-Julani actively engaged with the public, visiting displacement camps, attending events, and supervising relief efforts, especially during crises such as the 2023 earthquakes.

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham highlighted its achievements in governance and infrastructure to legitimize its rule and demonstrate its ability to provide stability and services.

It has previously praised the Taliban, upon its return to power in 2021, as an inspiration and a model for effectively balancing jihadist efforts with political aspirations, including making tactical concessions to achieve its goals.

Al-Julani's efforts in Idlib reflected his broader strategy to demonstrate HTS's ability not only to wage jihad but also to govern effectively.

By prioritizing stability, public services, and reconstruction, he aimed to showcase Idlib as a model of success under Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's rule, and to bolster his group's legitimacy and political aspirations.

But under his leadership, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham has crushed and marginalized other armed factions, both jihadist and rebel, in their efforts to consolidate their power and control the landscape.

Anti-Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham protests

For more than a year before the November 27 attack by rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, al-Julani faced protests in Idlib from hardline Islamists as well as Syrian activists.

Critics compared his rule to the Assad regime, accusing Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham of tyranny, suppressing the opposition, and silencing critics. The demonstrators described Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's security forces as “shabiha,” a term used to describe Assad's loyal followers.

They further claimed that HTS deliberately avoided serious combat against government forces, fringe jihadists and foreign fighters in Idlib to prevent them from engaging in such actions, all to appease international actors.

Even during the latest offensive, activists continually urged Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham to release individuals imprisoned in Idlib for allegedly expressing dissent.

In response to these criticisms, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham initiated several reforms over the past year. It disbanded or renamed a controversial security force accused of human rights abuses, and created a “grievances department” to allow citizens to file complaints against the group. Its critics said these measures were merely a show of containing dissent.

AFP People take part in a protest against Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in the rebel-controlled town of Binnish in Idlib Governorate, northwestern Syria (March 8, 2024)Agence France-Presse

Earlier this year, demonstrators in Idlib demanded the release of detainees and an end to the rule of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.

To justify its consolidation of authority in Idlib and suppression of pluralism among armed groups, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham claimed that unification under a single leadership was crucial to achieving progress and ultimately overthrowing the Syrian government.

HTS and its civilian arm, the Salvation Government, have walked a tightrope, seeking to project a modern, moderate image to win over both the local population and the international community, while at the same time preserving their Islamic identity to please hardliners within rebel- and HTS-controlled areas. Rows.

For example, in December 2023, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the Salvation Government faced backlash after hardliners criticized a “festival” held in a shiny new shopping mall as “immoral.”

In August this year, a Paralympic-inspired event sparked sharp criticism from hardliners, prompting the Secretary-General to review the organization of such events.

These events illustrate the challenges that Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham faces in reconciling the expectations of its Islamist base with the broader demands of the Syrian people, who seek freedom and coexistence after years of authoritarian rule under Assad.

Leading a new road?

As the latest attack emerged, global media focused on Al-Julani's jihadist past, prompting some rebel supporters to demand that he step down, seeing him as an obstacle.

Although he has previously expressed his desire to disband his group and step down, his recent actions and public appearances tell a different story.

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's success in uniting the rebels and taking control of almost the entire country in less than two weeks has strengthened al-Julani's position, placating hard-line critics and accusations of opportunism.

AFP Rebel fighters celebrate after seizing Maarat al-Numan in Idlib Governorate, northwestern Syria (November 30, 2024)Agence France-Presse

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and its allies launched the attack that ousted Assad at the end of November

Since then, Al-Julani and the Secretary-General have reassured local and international audiences.

They promised Syrians, including minorities, safety; They pledged to neighboring countries and powers such as Russia to establish peaceful relations. Al-Julani even assured Russia that its Syrian bases would remain intact if the attacks stopped.

This shift reflects the “moderate jihad” strategy that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has been pursuing since 2017, focusing on pragmatism rather than strict ideology.

Al-Julani's approach may signal the decline of global jihadist movements such as the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, whose inflexibility is increasingly seen as ineffective and unsustainable.

Its trajectory may inspire other groups to adapt, representing either a new era of politically flexible local “jihadism” or merely a temporary deviation from the traditional path for political and territorial gain.

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