US President Donald Trump at a press conference at the conclusion of the NATO summit on July 12, 2018.
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US President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday, and most of the world is watching with bated breath.
The prospect of more unpredictable foreign and trade policies, especially the threat of global trade tariffs of 10% to 20%, has raised concerns internationally and spooked financial markets. But Trump's deal-based approach and “America First” policy does not concern everyone globally.
In fact, many countries are welcoming a new era called “Trump 2.0.”
The European Council on Foreign Relations, a research institution, said in an article it published, “Trump’s return is something America’s long-term allies regret, but almost no one else.” Global survey It found that people in China and Russia were more optimistic about Trump's return to power than old allies in Europe and Asia.
The poll, which included more than 28,000 people in 24 countries, showed that “many believe that Trump will not only be good for America, but will achieve peace or ease tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and US-China relations.”
The European Council on Foreign Relations said of the results: “In countries from India and China to Turkey and Brazil, more respondents believe Trump will be good for America, their country, and peace in the world than think he will be bad for them.”
The poll showed that respondents in India, Saudi Arabia, and Russia were the most optimistic about Trump's return to office, both in terms of it being good for American citizens and for their countries.
Nearly 60% of Russian respondents felt that Trump's election was good for American citizens, and 49% felt it was good for Russia.
In the aftermath, 46% of Chinese respondents felt that Trump's return was good for China. This is despite Trump's threat to impose 60% to 100% tariffs on goods imported from China, a move that could deal a blow to the Chinese economy but is also counterproductive, likely sending prices higher for American consumers.
Russian soldiers near a captured US M2 Bradley combat vehicle in Ukraine.
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Positive sentiment toward Trump among the original BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) — and the belief that a more peaceful world might emerge as a result of his presidency — was much higher than in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. Korea, where only 11% of citizens surveyed considered a Trump presidency to be a good thing for their future.
More cheerfully, only 15% of British respondents think Trump would be very helpful to the UK “Special relationship.”
“When Donald Trump returns to the White House, much of the world will welcome him,” the European Council on Foreign Relations noted while publishing the report. “In Europe, anxiety is widespread, but in many other countries people feel either relieved or actively positive.” Regarding Trump's second term. The survey was conducted in November.
She added, “US allies in Europe and South Korea are noticeably pessimistic about the next president, indicating a further geopolitical weakening of the West.”
Trump is empowered
Geopolitical analysts say things will be different with President Trump this time, and the world must be prepared.
He won't just be encouraged The size of his electoral victory in 2024With strong support for a unified Republican Party and his return to the White House with more experience, he has also surrounded himself with loyalists more ideologically aligned with him, noted Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group.
Bremer told CNBC that Trump 2.0 will see the president retain more power and influence than before, while the West and the G7 — a group that includes the United Kingdom, Canada and Germany — lose ground.
“Trump has much more power vis-à-vis other countries this time around — both allies and adversaries of the United States — so they are more inclined to listen to him and take him seriously,” Bremer told CNBC in email comments.
“Trump also has more countries and populations lined up to support his ‘my country first’ approach to governance,” Bremer added.
“He had a strong relationship with Israel and the Gulf states in his first term, but now add to that Italy, Hungary, Argentina, El Salvador… and large swaths of the population in a number of other countries as well. He's very different from Trump.” He pointed out that he appears at the G20 and everyone laughs behind his back.
Bremer added, “The world of the Group Zero today is a completely different environment,” referring to his vision of a world in which there is no single power or group of powers willing and able to lead a global agenda to preserve the international order.
Market analysts agree that while Trump's antipathy toward China, the United States' largest economic rival, is well known, his long-standing ambivalence toward NATO and his anger at the continuing trade deficit with most of Europe make allies on the continent a potential target for Trump. More assertive, and perhaps aggressive, trade and defense policies.
European countries make up the majority of NATO members The European Union is the largest trading partner of the United States as a bloc.
“Here in Europe, we are concerned,” market strategist Bill Blaine (if he is not independent, can we please say what company/institution he belongs to) said in email comments last week. “However, the rest of the world is largely unfazed by the scale of change that may be coming.”
“It is clear that the geopolitical lines are being redrawn. The foundations of the global economy will therefore be redefined,” Blaine added.
