The broad outlines of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement that Israel and Hamas are currently discussing in indirect talks in Doha have been on the table since May. So why are there new expectations of its possibility of success after being frozen for eight months of war?
There are many things that have changed, both at the political level and on the ground.
The first is the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.
I have He threatened that “all hell” would break loose If the hostages are not released before he takes office on January 20.
Hamas may read that as a sign that even the tenuous brakes the Biden administration has used to try to rein in the Israeli government will be lifted, though it is hard to imagine what that might mean for a region already devastated by 15 months of war. .
Israel is also feeling pressure from the next president to end the conflict in Gaza, which threatens to interfere with Trump's hopes of securing a broader regional agreement and his desired image as a president who ends wars.
On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces constant pressure from his allies in the far-right coalition to continue the war.
But Trump may also be a source of strength for him in convincing his allies to accept the agreement and remain in the government. The new US president and the man he chose as ambassador to Israel are seen as supportive of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which the far-right Israeli Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said supports Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. He said he wanted annexation.
But after his meeting with the prime minister last night, Smotrich seemed unconvinced, writing on social media that the current deal was a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and that he would not support it.
However, some in Israel believe that Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, view their current role in the Israeli government as their best opportunity to consolidate their control over the West Bank, especially with Trump's return to the West Bank. The White House, and they are unlikely to carry out their threats to resign.
The second thing that has changed is the increasing pressure on Netanyahu from his military establishment.
It is widely reported that key figures repeatedly challenged him on the diminishing military objectives of continuing the war, after the killing of senior Hamas leaders and the destruction of Gaza.
Last week, ten Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, highlighting once again the costs of war to Israel, and the perennial question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas promised by Netanyahu is achievable.
Some analysts now point out that Hamas is rebuilding itself faster than Israel can defeat it, and therefore Israel must reconsider its strategy.
There is a third shift – regional – that plays a role in the shift in expectations here as well: the weakening and erosion of Hamas' allies in the region. Iranian “Axis of Resistance”.From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, in addition to the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.
For all these reasons, now is seen as the best opportunity in months to bridge the gaps between Israel and Hamas and bring an end to the war.
What has not changed in the eight months since they last negotiated are the gaps between them.
The most important of them is the direct conflict between the main concern of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and Israel, which wants to keep the door open to resuming the conflict, whether for political or military reasons.
deal, As President Joe Biden explained in Maydivided into three phases, with a permanent ceasefire that will not enter into force until the second phase.
Success will now likely depend on whether guarantees can be found to allay Hamas' fears that Israel will withdraw from the deal after the first phase of hostage release.
Questions about how to manage the lands from which Israel withdraws are also unclear at this stage.
But the network of diplomacy that has crisscrossed the region over the past week, and the fact that Netanyahu sent the heads of Israel's security services to the talks in Doha, along with a key political adviser, are encouraging signs.
The same applies to the departure of Palestinian Prisoner Affairs Coordinator Qaddoura Fares to Doha.
An agreement has not yet been reached, and talks have collapsed before.
This old agreement fuels new hopes, partly because the negotiations are taking place in a new regional context, under increasing pressure internally and from key allies abroad.