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Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Watch this space. This was the essence of Kemi Badenoch New year message To the country. Although often bland, these messages should offer an idea of how the parties hope to shape the debate in the coming months. The Tory leader had nothing more to say than “Please hold the line, your call is important to us.”
Politics abhors a vacuum, and while no one expects Badenoch to have fully completed her program two months after taking office, she does not have as much time as she thinks. Many people are monitoring this space and not patiently. The Conservatives are wary of the energy and attention being generated by Nigel Farage's Reform Party UK and are already debating how long to stay.
Recently, one serious and well-connected observer confided that Boris Johnson was a fair bet to be the next prime minister. He is not alone in this argument, and a glance at the former Conservative leader's recent biography leaves little doubt that the man himself has not ruled out the possibility.
Perhaps such talk is driven by the imminent (and once implausible) return of Donald Trump or a sense of crisis that has brought a dissident air into Western politics. Johnson fits that mold, although there are compelling reasons why he doesn't. All his closest supporters have left Westminster. He lacks a base in the country, and whatever the UK equivalent of a MAGA crowd is, he looks up to Farage. Above all, it reminds voters of the reasons why the Conservative Party has fallen into disrepute.
But what such chatter highlights is the depth of conservative paranoia. Boris's theory is ultimately a bet on continued decline and despair. One day, a defeated Conservative Party could slowly rebuild itself and wait for the pendulum to swing its way. But the rise of the Reformation deprives Badenoch of that time and place. Farage may be directing his fire at Labour, but his first task is to establish himself as a true opposition figure.
Badenoch's first weeks were uninspired and unfocused, and at times they were It even played into the hands of reform. While she was trying to get back on her feet, Farage was making headlines. GB News and the Telegraph, two of the most important right-wing media outlets, now appear to be merely extensions of his marketing operation. Memberships are up and Elon Musk is blessed. Farage is social media savvy and has an eye for the news. Even when he doesn't win outright, he influences and changes the debate, most clearly in the area of immigration.
Above all, there is an appetite for his message that the two major parties are failures and cannot be distinguished. In the last election, Labor and the Conservatives together received only 57 percent of the vote. The space for penetration appears to be expanding.
actually, Prominent conservatives are talking about the deal Which is what must be done with him to regain power. However, it is possible to see beyond some of the hype. Although it is likely to enjoy local election gains over the next eighteen months, reform still has a long way to go. Modern Opinion poll She electrified her allies by predicting that she could get 71 seats in the next election. However, the same poll also showed that the Conservatives have almost doubled their current tally. As seriously as one might take such an early poll, its underlying message was disillusionment with Labour.
An alternative explanation might be that Reform is emerging as a nationalist image of the Liberal Democrats (which Farage acknowledges) but on the right of politics, as a pirate party with geographical and demographic support and potential in areas where the Conservatives struggle to challenge Labour. The reform has appeal on both the left and the right, including poorer and older Labor voters. Ideological contradictions abound, but rival parties are usually less punished for it.
For all its talk of winning, the real goal of reform remains to do well enough to maintain the balance of power and force a change in the UK's electoral system that would permanently reshape the political map.
None of this is to diminish the party's potential, especially to force other parties to buy into its agenda. Its momentum represents a specter of politics yet to come. Its growth depends on an unpopular government and an unattractive opposition; Opinion polls show continued electoral fragmentation of the kind that allows parties to win seats with relatively low vote shares. But while Labor has some time to regain support, Badenoch does not. It would be ridiculous to write her off now, but even her sympathizers suggest she has between a year and 18 months to prove she can rebuild the party.
It may be necessary by the next election to reach some kind of deal (or just a non-aggression pact). But Badenoch need not panic now. Moreover, any deal that leads to electoral reform is not in her party's interest. What it needs to do is change the discourse of reform by bringing conservatives back into the national conversation as the main voice in opposition and on topics other than immigration. Fortunately, Labor has presented opportunities in the economy that resonate with its low-tax deregulation instincts. Conservatives, especially Badenoch, need to sue Rachel Reeves' tax increases. An effective appearance here will buy her time to clarify her agenda.
Badenoch was elected because conservatives felt she had the charisma and conviction needed to win them a hearing. But right-wing revolts are rising around her, and she doesn't have the luxury of time to find out while a grateful nation waits and watches.
