By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is increasingly likely to announce his intention to step down, although he has not made a final decision, a source familiar with Trudeau's thinking said.
Trudeau has been under increasing pressure to resign since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over a political dispute.
Trudeau's departure would leave the party without a permanent president at a time when opinion polls show the Liberals will lose badly to the official opposition Conservatives in elections that must be held by late October.
Here are some potential ways forward for Canada:
What will happen if Trudeau resigns?
If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will appoint an interim leader to serve as prime minister while the party prepares a special leadership conference. The challenge for the party is that these conferences usually take months to arrange and if an election is held before then, the Liberals will be in the hands of a prime minister not chosen by the members. This has never happened in Canada. The Liberals could try to run a shorter-than-usual convention, but that could spark protests from candidates who felt it put them at a disadvantage.
It is not possible for Freeland to be quickly appointed prime minister on a permanent basis, because tradition dictates that the interim leader should not run for the party leadership.
Could Trudeau be forced to step down by his Liberal Party?
In contrast to Britain, where party leaders are chosen by parliamentary caucus and can be quickly removed, the Liberal leader is chosen by a special conference of members. Therefore, there is no formal party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.
However, if members of his cabinet and a large number of lawmakers call on him to leave, he may conclude that his position is untenable.
Could Trudeau be forced out of Parliament?
Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have the confidence of the elected House of Commons. Votes on budgets and other spending are confidence measures, and if the government loses one, it falls. In almost all cases, the election campaign begins immediately.
The House of Commons closes for the winter recess in December and will not return until January 27. The government can use procedural maneuvers to avoid being ousted on a spending measure, but it should set aside a few days in each session for opposition parties when it can. Disclosure of motions on any matter, including no-confidence.
Assuming the government allocates opposition days at the end of the session, the most likely time to oust Trudeau would be in the last 10 days of March. This would lead to an election sometime in May.
Is there any other way Trudeau can be forced to step down?
Final constitutional authority in Canada rests with Governor General Marie Simon, who is the personal representative of King Charles, the head of state. She could theoretically fire Trudeau, but that won't happen in real life. “The governor general will not fire a prime minister who still enjoys the confidence of the House of Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Carleton University in Ottawa.
What else can Trudeau do to avoid being ousted?
Trudeau could prorogue Parliament, which would officially end the current session and give him some breathing room. Under this scenario, the return of Parliament would be delayed by several weeks, allowing the government to unveil a new plan for how it plans to run the country. This would have the advantage of delaying any motion of no confidence, but it could further anger Liberal lawmakers, especially if Trudeau is still prime minister.