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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world
The markets were fools on Saturday, and a shrewd figure on Monday. When Donald Trump announced the definitions against American neighbors at the end of last week, investors who have spoken since November were naive, as naive. For 48 hours. Then it is more or less justified for them. The customs duties were postponed for Canadian and Mexican assurances about the movement of drugs across the border and other Trump weeds. Investment banks can postpone shy customer calls until March.
The world will be silly to relax, of course. Trump has the ability to break the trading system in the coming years, even if he does so in seizures and start. But if there is nothing else, the past few days have been an education in the art of dealing with it.
Since Trump is very fast in quarrels, people tend to miss it is also fast in stability. He never drives his car like the deal that appears to be in his warring style. In 2020, China bought some peace with a mysterious and difficult pledge of chaos to cut off the trade imbalance of the two countries. (“The biggest deal that anyone has ever seen”, he is And invite herWith a focus on the external perception. Being from selfishness, not fanatic, what he cares about is his reputation as the maker of deals. To keep this, it needs a regular flow for them. Thus its content becomes secondary. We can harness, but the lesson here for the countries facing Trump is a fan: give it something he can Call victory. The concession should not be huge, and will actually cooperate in talking about its importance.
Also, he does not seem to mind in everything that he pays. Trump is open to what Henry Kissinger called “linking”. If it is upset with one thing, he can recognize a gesture of something that has no relationship. Want to avoid a trade war, Europe? Spend more on defense. Do you want to prevent betrayal of Ukraine? Softening the organization of the technology sector. It is difficult to know what is more news about Trump's truce with his northern and southern counterparts: their small concessions (Justin Trudeau appointed “Ventanel” “Caesar”) or the fact that economics and drug policy are mixed like this in first place.
So yes, Trump threatens to displace industrial investment from Europe to the United States. But Europe is precisely about the things it provides to it, specifically because its grievances are very many. In this sense, it may be the easiest in the DePang from Joe Biden, who did not believe that NATO was a club from the free free or the European Union a plot against the Silicon Valley. There was nothing that Europe could provide on those fronts that make it reduce the first industrial plan for America. With Trump, there may be. The madness of greatness in his view of the world – where the United States is torn by almost everyone, almost all the time – means that there are many entry points for negotiation.
If Trump is this contradictory thing, a soft, aggressive touch, then this appears in his personal relationships, and not only in his international Statia. Think about all the Republicans who were one day who found a path to grace. Trump's work in Trump is unpleasant but it is often short, as everything he did to go out is to stop his fight. His vice president is a severe critic. He is also his secretary. This should not be wrong because of the appetite or spirit by Trump. Instead, I think he would prefer to be slowly happy with someone who is serving for him over years from the highest level in his destruction. There is something of Caesar in his belief that the final installation of the enemy is to spare them.
In fact, Trump may prefer even my ex -critics who teach him the knee over the fans who have long been believed to fans. (Where is the feeling of opening with them?) If so, David Lami and Peter Mandleson, away from being embarrassing options as a foreign minister in Britain and Washington's ambassador, logically. Gibbes in the president is the point, not the responsibility. If the being of Trump from the beginning is a guarantee of anything, Nigel Faraj will not be in the Maga stadium.
Over and over again, whether in the personal or geopolitical field, it was a small step towards Trump tending to be a good future. The strange ugliness of his data makes this difficult. When an American president wants to “take over” Gaza and develop it in Kotan Lewanteen, he threw him a bone – on trade, on anything – seems meaningless. But the record is the record. Of course, the problem with this argument is that it is self -washing. If the president's habit is to declare victory for conflicts with the same ease that it begins to become a cup, then it will be something that people know, the ego will not be. He will raise his demands.
Until then, the competing countries should use what they have. Trump is not yet calming “deals”, as his innocents on his personal influence, is something that can be exploited. In the end, whatever news available to the face on Monday morning, the markets are still naive. For anyone who realizes that trade and international people have raised a lot of humanity, there is no good news to be in the next four years, and the least working ways to work in the storm.
